The reeling Razorbacks look to get back on track when they open their SEC schedule against the No. 14 Texas AM Aggies. Three weeks ago the roles were reversed, when the Hogs were No. 18 in the AP Poll and the Aggies were on the outside looking in.
But back-to-back home losses as double-digit chalk dropped Arkansas from the rankings while AM entered following a huge win over Arizona State. Regardless, it’s the start of a new season once the SEC bell rings.
ODDS
Texas AM opened as a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 60. Arkansas’ struggles the last two weeks had early money pouring in on the home team, forcing the spread up two points to -7.5. The total saw a drop to its current line at 58.
KEY MISMATCH
The Aggies defenders are in the opponent’s backfield so often it almost seems like they’re in the offensive huddle. Texas AM ranks No. 1 in the country in tackles for loss and No. 5 in yards lost on those tackles. Under defensive coordinator John Chavis they have implemented an aggressive, havoc-wreaking style that fits their personnel. Arkansas operates a ball-control offense that relies more on efficiency than explosiveness, making it important for the Razorbacks to gain positive yardage on early downs. Arkansas must keep Myles Garrett, Daeshon Hall, Daylon Mack and Donovan Wilson out of the backfield and avoid negative plays to make their game plan work to their favor. Controlling the ball and moving the sticks will wear down the Aggies defense and also keep their explosive offense off the field. Making the game plan work against a talented defense is easier said than done.
KEY STAT
35.7 – Arkansas’ red zone touchdown scoring efficiency. The Razorbacks have scored just five touchdowns in 14 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Aggies have allowed only five touchdowns to rank 19th in opponent red zone conversions.
BETTING ANGLE
Arkansas is in the throes of a crisis after losing two straight games on its home turf as a double-digit favorite. Such adversity is rare and puts the Razorbacks in a tough spot mentally. They can rally around the hardship and prove the last two games were a fluke. Or they can wilt, drop to 1-3 and begin the slow spiral toward bowl eligibility. The Razorbacks are quite familiar with the spread offense, but did they learn anything from last week’s 35-24 loss to Texas Tech? The Red Raiders are coached by former AM offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and runs a similar offense to that of Kevin Sumlin and Jake Spavital, so they should be well aware of what they’ll be facing.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen has been asked to do much more this season, and for the most part he’s responded. But there have been times he’s struggled to create, particularly in the red zone, leading to too many blown opportunities. He underthrew what would have been the game tying touchdown last week, only to see that failed third down chance turn into a devastating missed field goal. Allen needs to hit those to give the Hogs a chance or it could be a long afternoon. For the Aggies this game is about proving the first three were not a fluke; for Arkansas it’s about proving they were. AM’s Kyle Allen will come up big while Brandon, like last week, comes up short. I like the Razorbacks to cover in what should be a close game, but the Aggies get the win.
Texas AM 30, Arkansas 24
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Texas AM -5.5 with a total of 60. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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