The Longhorns lost four of their first five games, but have now taken two straight and look to extend that to three against Iowa State. Texas has, however, yet to win a game on the road.
ODDS
Both the spread and the total have dropped from their opening releases. Originally, BookMaker had the spread at 8-points in the Longhorns’ favor and the total at 57. Currently, the spread has Texas as 6.5-point chalk and the total is now down to 53.
The last two times these teams faced, Iowa State got the win ATS, but over a larger sample, the road team is 7-2 ATS, favoring Texas.
In general, the Cyclones are anything but a powerhouse ATS, going 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games and 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference games.
KEY MISMATCH
Defense is a challenge for both teams. Texas ranked No. 101 in total defense, giving up 436.6 yard per game and Iowa State ranks No. 113, allowing 465.1 yards per game.
Statistically, the Longhorns are poor against the pass and the rush. That’s great news for new starting quarterback Joel Lanning. The sophomore unseated Sam Richardson last week and proceeded to complete 70.6% of his passes against Baylor and throw for three touchdowns.
Lanning certainly has the numbers in a small sample size, he’ll get a nice ease into the starting gig against Texas.
On the flip side, Iowa State’s defense is also amongst the worst against the pass, but the Cyclones also struggle against the rush and that is a major strength of the Longhorns’ offense.
Quarterback Jerrod Heard leads the team in rushing with 494 yards, but he’s one of three players with at least 362 yards. Meanwhile, backup quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has 30 carries for 149 yards and five scores. With a number of rushing options, Texas can vary the looks it gives to Iowa State’s front seven.
KEY STAT
.486 – This is the third down conversion percentage allowed by Iowa State’s defense. Only eight teams have been worse in third down situations than the Cyclones this season. Of course, Texas’s defense has been only marginally better.
BETTING ANGLE
Texas has won four straight games against the Cyclones, but over the last two seasons, Iowa State has kept it close, beating the spread and losing both by a combined four points.
Last year, the Longhorns were able to squeak by with the win thanks to a 321-yard passing game and 95-yard rushing game from quarterback Tyrone Swoopes. Sam Richardson’s performance under center kept things close for Iowa State.
Interestingly, going into Saturday, both Swoopes and Richardson have been unseated under center.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
After a terrible start, Texas is starting to turn the corner. They’ve beaten the Cyclones for four years in a row and should be able to repeat against a team that’s lost each of its last three games by at least 18 points.
For both teams, it’s about the offense, but the Texas defense has begun to play better. Lanning should still be able to move the ball in the air, but the Longhorns’ pass rush has recorded 11 sacks in two games. The defense could also make the Iowa State offense one-dimensional. They held Oklahoma to just 67-yards and were able to record some big stops against Kansas State.
Meanwhile, Iowa State has a weak offensive line and a defensive front that’s given up big plays.
Texas 37, Iowa State 29
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Texas -8 with a total of 57. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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