Once again the expectations are as high as the preseason ranking for Notre Dame, which begins the year ranked 11th in the AP Poll. Not so much for Texas following a disappointing 2014 in coach Charlie Strong’s first season. If Texas can pull off the upset, then all of a sudden the Big 12 might not be all about TCU and Baylor this year. The Irish have a history of not living up to its preseason hype. Could 2015 be another one of those years?
ODDS
The line opened at Notre Dame -8.5 and spiked to -9 when the Texas depth chart, noting a number of first-year players on the two-deep, surfaced. Under Brian Kelly the Irish are just 12-18 ATS when favored by a touchdown or more. Texas looks like the smart play with the points. The total surfaced at 54.5 and with early money on the under, the total dipped to 51.
KEY MISMATCH
Malik Zaire against Texas Defense
Make no mistake the Irish can hurt Texas in a variety of ways. But everyone will have their eyes on dual-threat quarterback Malik Zaire, who returns as the starter after a full season to learn Kelly’s system. Zaire tantalized the Irish faithful with a performance against LSU in last season’s Music City Bowl that has them longing for more. Zaire threw for only 96 yards, but he was active in the pocket and created problems with his elusiveness. He also ran for 96 yards on 22 carries in what was his first start. Now that Everett Golson has transferred, the job is Zaire’s and he has a big, powerful experienced offensive line to work behind. Taysom Hill, Sam B. Richardson and Trevone Boykin all had big games against the Longhorns in 2014, and that team had more veteran talent than this year’s unit.
KEY STAT
40 – For a team that ranked 11th in the nation with 40 sacks last season, the Longhorns should be able to harass Zaire on a consistent basis, even considering the Irish’s terrific offensive front. Zaire is still learning the starting gig on the fly, doing it with all kinds of pressure. He has to be smart with the football against a Texas D that’s had weeks to dial up something special just for him.
BETTING ANGLE
It’s difficult enough for an experienced team to exit Notre Dame Stadium with a victory. The Longhorns will try and accomplish that with a group that were toddlers the last time the teams played. Texas has a talented freshman class and Strong isn’t afraid to use them. He really has no choice. Almost a third of the team’s depth chart is either a true or redshirt freshman. Most notably, Texas plans to start true freshman Malik Jefferson at middle linebacker and redshirt freshman Edwin Freeman at weak-side linebacker. Redshirt Jerrod Heard will get a chance to run the offense, though sophomore Tyrone Swoopes will start. “It’s not about who we’re going to play, but how we’re going to play,” the second year coach said.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Zaire doesn’t have to be great for Notre Dame to get a win, but Swoopes does for Texas to have a chance. The Irish should be better defensively than they were over the second half of last season when the group was battered for 319 points over the final eight games, and Swoopes will be pressured into critical turnovers. I really like what Strong is doing with the Texas program. He’s filtered out some of the dead wood and brought in his guys. The problem is his guys are a bunch of freshman, and to have a significant number of first-year players make a huge impact in the opener is a lot to ask. The Longhorns will improve as the youngsters get seasoned, it’ll just take time. If the teams met in November, we’d likely see a different outcome, but Notre Dame has the experience and the homefield advantage.
Notre Dame 26, Texas 20
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -8.5 in favor of the Fighting Irish. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 54.5. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Texas Longhorns and Notre Dame Fighting Irish will take place Saturday, September 5, 2015, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium. The game will be broadcast nationally on NBC.
