UCLA got the short end of the Pac-12 scheduling deal, having to play consecutive Thursday night games against their Bay Area rivals, beginning with a visit to Stanford. The Cardinal have gotten the better of their So Cal counterparts and another win is there for the taking with the Bruins a banged up bunch. UCLA will have to put something truly special together if it wants to defeat Stanford for the first time in eight tries.
ODDS
Stanford opened as a 5-point favorite with the total at 55. With UCLA’s injuries mounting, the spread was wagered to -6.5. The Cardinal has been good to bettors going 7-1 ATS in its last eight and 6-1 in its last seven when playing UCLA.
KEY MISMATCH
There will be no surprises for UCLA this week. No. 15 Stanford is once again running the ball with physicality and the game will likely teeter on how well UCLA deals with Stanford’s will to run. The Cardinal averages 209.8 yards rushing per game, 27th nationally. The Bruins allow 197.0 yards per game, 99th in the country. Without top players at each level of the defense, UCLA allowed 353 rush yards to Arizona and 192 to Arizona State in its last outing. Christian McCaffrey is the latest Stanford workhorse. He brings more elusiveness to the backfield than his predecessors, and can turn any play into a big gain. McCaffrey is second in the nation in all-purpose yards, averaging 229.8 per game. He has 608 yards rushing and a team-high 15 receptions for 168 yards. With UCLA decimated by injuries, coach Jim Mora had “to rearrange the puzzle” on defense. Whether the pieces are in place will be evident against Stanford.
KEY STAT
35.0 – Average points per game for Stanford. After failing to score a touchdown and managing just six points in the opener, the Cardinal is scoring an average of 42.3 points in its last four games, while outscoring opponents 169-79.
BETTING ANGLE
Too often UCLA coach Jim Mora has found Stanford standing in the way of his team’s goals. The Cardinal defeated UCLA in the 2012 Pac-12 championship game, and the Bruins were on the verge of winning the Pac-12 South last season until the Cardinal delivered a 31-10 upset in the season finale. The common factor in each of Mora’s four losses to Stanford has been an inability to stop the run, allowing at least 192 yards rushing. The loss of three defensive stalwarts has suddenly changed the direction of UCLA’s season and the Bruins come in as a 5.5-point underdog. UCLA is coming off its first loss of the year, and while the Bruins are still in contention for the Pac-12 South, it doesn’t feel like it. Mora used the bye week to address the loss of Myles Jack, Fabian Moreau and Eddie Vanderdoes on defense, and believes his team will be up to the challenge of shutting down the Cardinal and ending a seven-game losing streak in the series.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Stanford is killing opponents with its running game and the Bruins are vulnerable with several key defenders lost due to injury. Mossi Johnson became the fourth UCLA defender done for the season when he tore three knee ligaments in practice last week. That’ll make it even more difficult for the Bruins to stop the Cardinal attack. Stanford’s style of play will also impact UCLA on offense by shortening the game, making the Bruins aware of the need to make the most of their limited possessions. They will have to play a near perfect game to upset the Cardinal on the road. While it’s possible the Bruins rally behind their freshman quarterback Josh Rosen and the injured players, it’s more likely the Cardinal continues its roll through the conference.
Stanford 31, UCLA 24
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Cardinal were pegged as 5-point chalk while the total opened at 55. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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