The Warhawks actually beat the Crimson Tide SU the last time these two teams met back in 2007, 21-14, getting revenge for the 41-7 shellacking the season prior.
ODDS
The Tide are currently 38-point favorites in this game. That number has held steady since the lines opened.
Despite the large spread, Alabama is currently expected by many to beat the spread though the team is just 1-2 ATS this season.
Exploring recent trends a bit further, we see that the Tide are just 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games and 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference showdowns.
Even at home Alabama’s struggled to cover going 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
While a win ATS for UL Monroe could still be a significant loss ATS, they’ve got the trends behind them to at least top the spread. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last four road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven overall, though that one loss did come this season.
KEY MISMATCH
The Warhawks have played two games this year with very different results. In their opener, they were trounced by Georgia, 51-14, but in their latest game, took it to Nicholls State 47-0.
This small snapshot shows a team that can dominate weaker competition, but is unable to compete with the big boys.
Given that, another big loss appears in store for Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday.
In this game, the defense figures to be at the biggest disadvantage. The Warhawks were able to put up a pair of touchdowns against Georgia and they have some playmakers on offense, namely quarterback Garrett Smith who has completed 79% of his passes for 576 yards and five touchdowns.
Defensively, they were unable to do anything against the Bulldogs, allowing them to run the ball with ease, collecting 243 yards with little resistance.
Alabama’s offense should be able to have comparable success. The Tide offense has been the consistent part of the team, scoring between 35 and 37 points in each of their first three games.
On the ground, Alabama already has nine touchdowns including seven from Derrick Henry. Henry’s already gained 370 yards while Kenyan Drake has added 150. Counting quarterback Jake Coker, four players have at least 11 rushes and each have gained at least 4.5 yards per carry.
KEY STAT
.857 – This is the touchdown percentage for the Warhawks when in the red zone.
Louisiana-Monroe may not have a defense that can stack up against the top offenses, but their offense is at least able to finish it off when in the red zone, even against tougher competition.
Should the Warhawks have success in beating the spread, it’ll come from its offense, not its defense.
BETTING ANGLE
The Tide dropped from No. 2 to No. 12 in the AP Top 25 after falling to Mississippi on Saturday. Obviously, Ole Miss is a tough team as it’s currently ranked No.3 in a tie with TCU, but a loss this early in the year is a tough blow for a team with expectations as high as Alabama.
The Tide is likely to take their frustrations out on the Warhawks as they return home against a lesser competitor.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Alabama’s struggles ATS are troublesome for this game. These teams are quite mismatched and it’s hard to side with the Warhawks, but the trends aren’t on the Tide’s side.
The Crimson Tide are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as favorites by at least 20-points and haven’t beaten the spread in such a game since October of 2013. Overall, I think Garrett Smith and company score just enough to beat this lofty outpost.
Alabama 47, Louisiana-Monroe 13
The college football lines for this contest were first released by BookMaker and the Crimson Tide were positioned as 38-point favorites. Gamble on the game between every commercial break with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen on the next play or how many points will be scored in the next quarter. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks and Alabama Crimson Tide square off on Saturday, September 26, 2015, at 4 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The contest will be broadcast live on the SEC Network.
