The once mighty Fresno State Bulldogs look to end a five-game losing streak when they host the UNLV Rebels on Friday night. Fresno State has been run over, literally, by its opponents this season, surrendering better than 200 yards per game on the ground. That’s good news for the Rebels, who lack any sort of passing game with quarterback Blake Decker shelved with a shoulder injury.
ODDS
UNLV opened as a 3-point favorite with the total at 55. It’s the first time this season the Rebels are favored against a FBS team. They covered the spread in all three road games and won outright two weeks ago at Nevada. The Rebels were 11-point chalk against FCS Idaho State and won the game 80-8. The line was wagered a field goal to -6.
KEY MISMATCH
Fresno State allowed 200 or more yards rushing for a fifth consecutive game and 12th time in the past 18 games against an FBS opponent when Utah State gained 201 yards on 43 attempts for a 4.7 yards per carry average. This week the Bulldogs will try to slow down the Rebels running attack, which averages 217.8 yards per game. Keith Whitely leads UNLV with 373 yards on 82 carries while Xzavier Campbell has 274 yards on 43 attempts. The Rebels lack a passing attack with quarterback Blake Decker out with a shoulder injury and backup Kurt Palandech unable to sustain anything through the air. Palandech is the team’s fourth leading ground gainer with 165 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Fresno State gives up 211.2 yards on the ground per game and allowed San Jose State’s Tyler Ervin to run for 300 yards by himself in the Spartans’ 49-23 win.
KEY STAT
81.8 – Fresno State’s red zone touchdown percentage allowed. Utah State scored touchdowns on all five trips inside the 20-yard line last week, free-falling the Bulldogs into last place in the MWC. Fresno State has allowed 18 touchdowns in 22 opponent red zone trips.
BETTING ANGLE
Fresno State can give thanks to North Texas and Kansas, because right now those not-so-mighty Mean Green and Jayhawks are by one statistical measure the worst of 128 teams in the FBS. Which, of course, means the Bulldogs are not. Those two schools are the only ones with a worse point differential than Fresno State’s -22.3. The thing that has become painfully obvious for the Bulldogs is that the rest of the Mountain West Conference has passed them when it comes to the overall strength, speed and physicality of the players. The Bulldogs are a young team that has experienced the growing pains. UNLV is headed the other direction, already equaling their win total from a season ago, new head coach Tony Sanchez has a competitive team that has played UCLA and Michigan tough, covering the spread in a 28-7 loss at the Big House, and is in the running in the MWC West division.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Fresno State is bad. The program has declined rapidly since winning back-to-back Mountain West Conference championships in 2012 and 2013 and is the worst team statistically in the conference. You can blame the descent on a youth movement, but the bottom line is the Bulldogs are weak on both sides of the ball and haven’t been competitive in any of their losses. They’ve had five starting quarterbacks in their past seven games, going back to the 2014 Hawaii Bowl loss, and their only win came against FCS Abilene Christian. UNLV was hurt through the air last week by San Jose State and shouldn’t have that problem against a Fresno State team that has trouble moving the ball. The Rebels’ margin of victory would be greater if Decker is able to play, but his shoulder trouble likely keeps him out. Palandech is more of a running threat and that plays into UNLV’s game plan as the Rebels would like to pound away on the ground against a team that allowed seven rushing touchdowns last week. The Rebels will run to a road win in this one.
UNLV 34, Fresno State 27
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at UNLV -3 with a total of 55. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Need to fund your account before the big game but don’t have your computer? No problem, BookMaker Sportsbook now offers a mobile betting cashier so you can deposit money directly from your smartphone. Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet, click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The contest between the UNLV Rebels and Fresno State Bulldogs will take place Friday, October 16, 2015, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Bulldog Stadium. You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
