One of the best bowl matchups prior to the College Football Playoff matchups on New Year’s Eve, the Alamo Bowl features two top twelve teams in the No. 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys and No. 10 Colorado Buffaloes. Both of these teams have had surprising seasons, each a great story itself and good performer for bettors. When it’s all said and done, one of these teams will be a top-10 team.
This matchup in the prestigious Valero Alamo Bowl will take place on Thursday, December 29, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at the Alamodome.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma State +3.5
Colorado -3.5
Over/Under 62
Odds Analysis
The total is down a couple of points from it’s opening mark of 64 while the spread has jumped past a field goal to up a point and still favoring the Buffaloes.
Oklahoma State leveraged a seven game winning streak to get in position for chance for a conference title before falling to the Sooners in their last game. That was also just the second time in six games that the Cowboys failed to cover the spread.
The Buffaloes also ended their season with a loss, falling 41-10, to Washington who now advance as one of the four College Football Playoff teams. That loss snapped a six game winning streak for the Buffaloes, but was the team’s second straight game where they failed to cover the spread.
Colorado, however, did end the season with a very impressive 10-3 mark ATS.
Injury Report
An ankle injury cut Sefo Liufau’s game short in the Buffaloes’ battle against Washington. That didn’t help the team’s chances as the game got away from them.
Colorado is 0-2 with the talented quarterback doesn’t account for a score, but he’s expected to be back and fully healthy for the Alamo Bowl.
It’s up to Liufau and running back Phillip Lindsey to lead this team inbetween the tackles. The physical offense can wear down opposing defenses and Oklahoma State’s defense is a bit of a weakness, ranking No. 89 in the nation in yards allowed. As long as they stay away from some of the stars on that side of the field, Liufau and Lindsey should be able to muscle their way to more than their share of first downs and scores.
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State offense will have a more difficult defense to contend with, given the experienced and stout secondary, but the Cowboys’ offense is great at taking the top off the defense and stretching out the field.
The connection between Mason Rudolph and James Washington is otherworldly. Washington is averaging 19.5 yards per catch and with 62 receptions has 1,209 yards and nine scores.
He’s not Rudolph’s only weapon in the passing game either and while the ability to spread the defense is a strength of this team, the ability to run the ball isn’t lost. Justice Hill has 5.6 yards per carry and 187 touches.
Letdown Spot
Colorado is the better team on paper. They’re offense isn’t quite as prolific, but it’s strong enough and their defense out classes the Cowboys.
The interesting angle here, however, is this is a Buffaloes team that vastly over-performed all season long. They’ve made the pundits look silly every step of the way. That’s great news for bettors who were able to ride the ship this season, but can they keep it up or was the second half against Washington a sign of things to come.
This is Colorado’s first postseason game in nearly a decade so that should have the team fired up, but can they shack off the poor performance the last time out? More than that, can this team keep its cool without any real postseason experience? They’ll be amped to play, but they’ll need to use that energy for good rather than get taken in by the big stage.
Free ATS Pick
Colorado kept the first half against Washington close before the game got away from there. In the end, the Buffaloes pull through and get the win, but look for this game to be close. The Rudolph to Washington connection is a great one and will be able to help the Cowboys generate enough offense.
In the end, look for Lindsey and Liufau to be too much for Oklahoma State defense to handle. They’re a slightly more physical team and will use that to their advantage. They inch out the win, but keep a close eye on the spread in this one. With the difference now more than a field goal, take the points and the Cowboys to cover.
College Football Odds: Colorado 33, Oklahoma State 30
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