After a commanding 27-3 win over the Bulldogs in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” the Gators will return home with their elite defense matching up against a Vandy team that hasn’t scored more than 10 points in its last three games.
ODDS
The odds opened at BookMaker with the Gators 19-point favorites at home with the total set at 39.5. The odds have since moved even more in Florida’s favor as they’re now listed as 21-point chalk. The total has dropped with confidence in the Gators’ defense at an all-time high. The total is now situated at 37.5.
Over their last six games the Gators are 5-1 ATS and boast the same record over their last six home games. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games, but have dropped their last two.
KEY MISMATCH
The Gators have surprised a lot of teams and rank No. 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings, sitting 7-1 overall.
Florida’s passing attack has been better than people expected, but the team’s success is attributable to their defense, ranked No. 7 in the nation, allowing just 15.5 PPG.
The defense should be able to completely shut down the Commodores who are averaging just 15.8 PPG and haven’t topped 10-points over their last three games. They’ve also failed to score more than 17 since September 19. The only team the offense has had success against was Austin Peay.
Overall, Vanderbilt has thrown 14 interceptions, 12 coming from starting quarterback Johnny McCrary. Against Houston on Saturday, McCrary and fellow quarterback Kyle Shurmur combined for just 44-yards passing, and completed 5-of-20 passes.
Florida is fourth in the SEC in pass defense, allowing just 192.4 passing yards per game.
KEY STAT
-11 – This is the turnover margin for the Commodores this season. Vanderbilt has turned the ball over 21 times on 14 interceptions and seven fumbles. The defense has forced seven fumbles themselves, but the secondary has only picked off the opposing quarterbacks three times.
It’s hard to win, or even stage much offense when your team is giving away the ball so frequently. On the other side, that’s where the Gators have had so much success.
The Florida offense isn’t great, but it does a good job holding onto the pigskin. They’ve allowed just six turnovers all year while their defense has recorded 19, giving them the second best margin in college football, right behind Houston.
BETTING ANGLE
Vanderbilt is 10-36 all-time against the Gators and over its last ten meetings have managed just one victory, winning 34-17 back in 2013 when Florida was a shell of its former self.
The Commodores do have a few other trends on their side with the road team beating the spread in each of the last seven head-to-head meetings. Vandy is also 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to the Swamp.
Still, it’s hard to go against Florida here. The defense is lauded, but the offense produces. They’re not a dynamic bunch, but they hold onto the ball, move down the field and produce enough to help give their elite defense rest and keep them off the field.
Individually, quarterback Will Grier had completed 65.6% of his passes and had a 10:3 touchdown to interception ratio before his suspension. With him out, Florida could have folded, but Treon Harris stepped in and has yet to throw an interception in 78 pass attempts. He also provides some spark on the ground alongside running back Kelvin Taylor who has 10 touchdowns.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Gators are rolling—aside from a loss to LSU on the road. They’ve won seven straight home games and are 6-1 ATS in those games.
Look for Florida’s defense to completely shut down Vanderbilt, recording a few interceptions along the way. The only real question in this matchup is how well the Florida offense can fair.
The Gators offense is averaging 31 PPG and if the Commodores aren’t able to eclipse 10-points for their fourth straight game, that will be plenty to allow them to cover the three touchdown spread.
Florida 33, Vanderbilt 9
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform.
Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Vanderbilt Commodores and Florida Gators square off on Saturday, November 7, 2015, at 12 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
