It’s a whole new world for the Oregon Ducks, who dusted themselves off following the Utah drubbing to defeat Colorado last Saturday. While it wasn’t a championship performance, it was a start for a program without a national ranking for the first time in six years. Oregon has won the last nine games in the series but the Cougars are 5-0 ATS in the last five.
ODDS
Oregon opened as a 17-point favorite with the total at 74. The Ducks were double-digit faves in their three home games but failed to cover in any of them. Washington State is 5-0 ATS in the last five series games. Some uncertainty surrounding Oregon’s quarterback situation caused the total to slide to 69.5 while the spread held firm.
KEY MISMATCH
While the defense has crumbled and the offense has struggled to fill the void left behind by quarterback Marcus Mariota, who now starts in the NFL for Tennessee, the Oregon Ducks’ special teams play has been a thing of beauty. Placekicker Aidan Schneider has been automatic on field goals, converting all eight attempts – including three from 40 or more yards – and is a perfect 25 of 25 on extra points to make him the Pac-12 scoring leader. The Ducks are also strong in other areas of their special teams. Bralon Addison is the conference’s leading punt returner, taking kicks back an average of 18.3 yards per attempt. He busted one loose for 81 yards and a touchdown at Michigan State earlier this season. Charles Nelson tops the Pac-12 in kickoff returns with a 30.6 per return average.
KEY STAT
28.3 – Washington State’s points per game. While the Cougs have put up huge yardage totals, especially through the air, they are 10th in the Pac-12 in scoring. Oregon has been very generous defensively, allowing a conference-worst 37.4 points per game.
BETTING ANGLE
Oregon was a double-digit favorite in all three of its previous home games and failed to get close to a cover. The Ducks even lost by 42 points to Utah as 10.5-point chalk. They did beat Eastern Washington by 19 points while laying 35 and handled Georgia State by 33 points while giving 42.5. Washington State’s strength is its passing game, while Oregon’s weakness is its pass defense. Cougs’ quarterback Luke Falk leads the Pac-12 in passing yards with 364.8 per game and has a cadre of talented receivers that make the aerial attack work. He puts the ball in the air at least 40 times a game and completes a healthy 76.2 percent of his throws – which is fourth best in the nation among qualified players. Oregon has been torched this season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.2 percent and surrendering 287.2 pass yards per game to rank 115th out of 128 schools. The Cougs are 5-0 ATS in their last five with Oregon and have covered the spread in their last two visits to Autzen. They should hang around for a cover on Saturday as well.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Gradually the Ducks are figuring out who they are this season, carving out an identity now that Mariota has moved on. While Vernon Adams continues to nurse his broken finger, the Ducks again will use a two quarterback system with Jeff Lockie and Taylor Alie dividing the reps. Neither player was particularly sharp last week and until one gains separation, or Adams has healed enough to take snaps, the platoon system is coach Mark Helfrich’s best option. Expect another heavy dose of backs Royce Freeman and Taj Grifffin, the rookie speedster who averaged 10 yards on 11 carries last week. The Cougars can keep the game close with Falk tossing the ball around the yard and an improved defense that played well against Cal last week. But the Ducks still have weapons, even if one isn’t playing quarterback.
Oregon 38, Washington State 27
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -17 in favor of the Ducks. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 74. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Washington State Cougars and Oregon Ducks will take place Saturday, October 10, 2015, at 6 p.m. ET at Autzen Stadium. The contest will be broadcast live on the Pac-12 Network.
