Nine years ago to the day, the Appalachian State Mountaineers put the college football world on its ear by traveling to the Big House and knocking off the No. 5 Michigan Wolverines. App State ended up using that win as a springboard to make the jump from the FCS to the FBS and after a bumpy transition is now back to its winning ways. The season opener in Week 1 of the college football season against the Tennessee Volunteers will be an important gauge to see just how far this team has come in a short time.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Thursday, September 1, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Neyland Stadium on SEC Network.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee -20
Appalachian State +20
Over/Under 57.5
Odds Analysis
The Volunteers opened as a 22.5-point favorite in this one and the spread has come down some since then. Appalachian State has taken on two heavyweights since making the jump, Michigan in 2014 and Clemson last season, and failed to cover the spread in either of those games.
Matchup to Watch
The key to this game will be how Tennessee’s running game does against Appalachian State’s run defense. The Mountaineers had one of the sturdiest run defenses of any Group of Five team last season, holding opponents to 3.4 yards per carry. The run defense was even able to contain Clemson’s vaunted offense, giving up just 140 yards on 44 carries in that match-up last season.
Enter Josh Dobbs and Jalen Hurd. There’s a lot of pressure for the duo to succeed after collapsing late in games last season and it will look to start the season right here. Tennessee rushed for 224 yards per game last season and put up solid numbers against every team not named Alabama or Oklahoma. App State will likely stack the box to try to force Dobbs to throw, but if Tennessee can consistently get yards on the ground with seven or eight men in the box, it will be a long afternoon for the Mountaineers.
Look-ahead Situation
The week after taking on App State, Tennessee will be playing in one of the most unique games of the season. The Volunteers will be taking on the Virginia Tech Hokies at Bristol Motor Speedway in what should be their only real out-of-conference test. Butch Jones and the Vols will likely be prepping for a tough game against a Bud Foster coached defense at least somewhat in the run-up to this, but they can’t completely overlook a team the caliber of App State.
If App State is behind by a decent amount in the second half, look for head coach Scott Satterfield to start to pull his starters so he can have everyone healthy for the most important home game in school history. The Miami Hurricanes are coming to Boone in the third week of September and the Mountaineers have a much better shot of winning that game than they do here.
Free ATS Pick
This should be the season that Tennessee finally breaks through and wins the SEC East. With Florida still rebuilding and Georgia learning under a new coach, the Volunteers are the favorites to win the division and possibly contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff if things break right.
Although Dobbs isn’t a great passer, he is a dynamic runner and the dual threat of he and Hurd in the backfield is enough to keep defensive coordinators up all night. This App State defense is good, but it will have to stack the box in order to stop the run. Dobbs isn’t the second coming of Peyton Manning out there, but can throw it around enough to exploit the mismatches and give the Volunteers a cover against the betting line.
College Football Odds: Volunteers 38, Mountaineers 14
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