Will this be the year that the Colorado Buffaloes finally shake off the last decade of losing seasons and return to a bowl? There’s a lot of optimism in Boulder with 18 returning starters and confidence that Mike MacIntyre might be the person to turn this thing around. A nine-game conference schedule leaves the Buffaloes no room for error though and they must get at least two wins in non-conference play to be playing in December. That makes their matchup against the Colorado State Rams in College Football Week 1 crucial to their chances.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Friday, September 2, 2016,
at 8 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Colorado -7.5
Colorado State +7.5
Over/Under 54.5
Odds Analysis
There’s been a bit of line movement in this meeting between the in-state rivals. Colorado opened as a 9-point favorite and the line has moved down to 7.5. Over the past five years this game has gone back and forth with the sides trading wins every year.
Player to Watch
Say what you want about Mike Bobo, but he can develop a quarterback. Nick Stevens had a pretty solid sophomore campaign after only throwing 25 passes in his freshman season. Stevens showed a lot of poise for a kid and Bobo did a great job of helping him feel comfortable with some of the sets and schemes the Rams ran.
However, Stevens is going to be thrown into the fire this season. His top four receivers from last year are all gone and the corps he inherits this year is raw and inexperienced. Defensively the Buffaloes strength is in its secondary and despite playing in the pass happy PAC-12, they allowed just 218 yards per game through the air in 2015. Stevens will have to beat Colorado’s secondary if the Rams want to pull off the upset.
Last Meeting
There’s been plenty of close games between these two teams in recent years, but last year’s edition was an overtime thriller that ripped the heart out of Colorado State. The Rams jumped out to a 14-0 lead and it looked like it was going to be one of those days for the Buffaloes.
Turnovers ended up flipping the script of the game though. Despite being outgained by 155 yards, Colorado got a pick-six in the fourth quarter and then blocked a field goal in overtime to win a game it had no business winning. Kudos to Colorado State though, its second straight overtime loss to a Power Five team could have put a damper on the season, but Mike Bobo’s squad rallied to make a bowl.
Free ATS Pick
Experience is the name of the game here. Whereas the Buffaloes have 18 returning starters, the Rams bring back just 10 starters from last season. Not only that, but Colorado State must replace its entire defensive line from last season as well as three of the four members of its secondary. That’s going to cause some problems early in the season and should lead to some big plays for Colorado.
The Buffaloes’ record hasn’t improved much from year-to-year, but this team is in noticeably better shape than it was under former coach Jon Embree. Colorado has yet to win more than one conference game in any of the last three seasons, but has been a lot more competitive.
If this game were later in the season, Colorado State would likely be the play. Mike Bobo has given the folks in Fort Collins reason to feel the program is in just as good of shape as Jim McElwain left it. However, those players need some seasoning and the chemistry that Colorado already has will lead it to a victory here.
College Football Odds: Buffaloes 31, Rams 21
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