The first year of the Mike Riley regime didn’t necessarily go as planned. The seven losses accrued marked the first time a Nebraska Cornhuskers team lost that many games since 2007. Still, four of the defeats came by way of three or less points so there is some optimism in Lincoln heading into Week 1 of 2016. The same can’t really be said for Fresno State who made mass changes amongst the coaching staff in hopes of rediscovering the success the program had the first two years of Tim DeRuyter’s regime.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Fresno State +28
Nebraska -28
Over/Under 62
Odds Analysis
The betting public is expecting some points to hit the board in this one, and for the Huskers to have some issues covering the chalky impost.
Since linemakers opened the pointspread with Nebraska favored by 29 points, the line has been bet down to as low as -27.5 before bumping back up to -28 where it currently sits. Only the juice has been altered since.
The total opened at 60 and trickled up a point and a half before holding steady at 62 where it currently sits. Though each defense is strongest in its back seven, neither has much to speak of up front which means both quarterbacks could have a ton of time to stand in the pocket and deliver strikes. This number might not be done climbing.
Coaching Angle
Tim DeRuyter no longer wants to play up-tempo and run his offense according to how opposing defense set up. Instead, he wants the unit to impose its will when the situation calls for it. That could allow for some success initially against a Cornhusker defense that lost a ton up front making the Bulldogs inexperienced offensive line not nearly as big of an issue initially.
Fresno State will be looking to shorten up the game as much as possible. If effective, it could prevent Nebraska from putting some distance between it and the visitors. If that turns out to be the case, those that lay the four touchdowns will need big scoring plays to occur. That’s never something you can count on.
Last Meeting
These teams have met twice dating back to 2011, and both games saw a bevy of points get put on the board.
The last time the Bulldogs paid Memorial Stadium a visit, they fell by a 42-29 final count but covered an identical 28 point spread. The 71 combined points shattered the 53.5 point closing total with ease.
In the 2014 skirmish, Big Red went on the road and rubbed Fresno State’s face in a 55-19 beat down for the ages. Again, the 74 points soared over the 61 point total and the Huskers covered the 11 point spread. DeRuyter was at the helm of that Bulldog team, so you know he’ll be looking to make some sort of amends in this spot.
Free ATS Pick
Emotions will be high for this one as it’s the first Nebraska game to be played without senior punter Sam Foltz who was killed in a car accident in the offseason. Nebraska will no doubt taker the field with heavy hearts and it might affect them early, but once Riley’s kids find their bearings, it should be all one way traffic.
Still, this is a boatload of points for a Huskers side to lay against a Fresno State squad determined to turn the fortunes of the program around after struggling mightily the last couple seasons. If Fresno State is actually able to set the tone offensively with its ground game, it will allow frosh quarterback Chason Virgil to test a Huskers secondary that ranked No. 122 nationally in passing yards allowed.
The Cornhuskers will by no means be in danger of losing this game, but covering such a hefty pointspread is an entirely different story.
College Football Odds: Nebraska 37, Fresno State 20
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