Can the Indiana Hoosiers make back-to-back bowl appearances for the first time in a quarter century? That’s just what Kevin Wilson will try to do after breaking Indiana’s eight-year long bowl drought. Indiana will start the march towards six wins with a winnable game in talent rich South Florida against the Florida International Golden Panthers. This Week 1 match-up will be a rematch of the most heartbreaking game for FIU in 2015, when it came within a fourth and goal conversion of knocking off the Hoosiers.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Thursday, September 1, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ocean Bank Field at FIU Stadium on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida International +9
Indiana -9
Over/Under 61
Odds Analysis
This line opened up with Indiana as an eight-point favorite and has moved up by a point since the opener. FIU returns most of its offense from last year’s team that almost knocked off Indiana and as the game draws near, the spread should tighten.
Player to Watch
Alex McGough was one of the top quarterbacks in Conference USA last season and had the best single-season for a quarterback in FIU history. He is one of the most seasoned juniors in all of college football having started 23 games in his first two seasons. Last year he put up one of his best performances against Indiana in the second week of the season and used that as a springboard to bring FIU to the cusp of bowl eligibility.
He should have an even better season in 2016. The Golden Panthers like to run a lot of two tight end sets and that means that McGough is able to exploit mismatches against defenses that have gotten lighter and quicker to try to stop spread offenses. Indiana’s defense was already one of the most porous in the country already and FIU will be able to pick on its linebackers here.
Last Meeting
When these two teams played last season, Hoosiers backers got a miracle cover. The game was close throughout with FIU leading at halftime and early in the fourth as well. However, Indiana rallied to take a seven-point lead that it held until FIU moved the ball late when down by seven. That’s when the Hoosiers put the game beyond all doubt by taking an errant McGough pass 96 yards for a pick-six.
The win was extremely important for Indiana as it got the Hoosiers to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2007 and likely saved coach Kevin Wilson’s job. If Indiana is going to go back to the college football postseason, it will need to win this one as well.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to overstate just how bad Indiana’s defense was last season. The 22 points it ended up allowing to FIU was the least amount of points it gave up all season and if it wasn’t for Nate Sudfeld’s arm, the Hoosiers would have been in the cellar of the Big Ten. Indiana gave up over 500 YPG on defense and 37.8 PPG last season and although those numbers should improve, the unit is still one of the worst of the Power Five teams.
The Hoosiers aren’t going to be great on offense either without Sudfeld. Zander Diamont isn’t even in the same galaxy as Sudfeld was talent wise and although he is a playmaker with his feet, his arm just isn’t that talented. Even if JUCO transfer Richard Lagow starts instead, he is just getting started with Wilson’s offense and will have his own issues.
Indiana has some playmakers on the offensive side of the ball and those guys will put points on the board, but the more talented quarterback is McGough and he will lead FIU to an upset victory that will rankle the noses of Big Ten supporters across the Midwest.
College Football Odds: Golden Panthers 28, Hoosiers 24
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