James Franklin took over the reins in Happy Valley with the odds stacked against him. Though forced to deal with scholarship restrictions levied upon the program, the Nittany Lions have gone bowling each of the first two years he overlooked the program. Penn State will look to take a step closer toward making it three straight campaigns with a bowl invite in Week 1, but standing in their way of logging win No. 1 will be an experienced Kent State squad with a defense that could give the offense fits.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Beaver Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kent State +21
Penn State -21
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
The betting market originally bought into the Golden Flashes at the open. Kent State was bought down to as low as +19.5 from the 20.5 opener, but the number climbed back up to -21 in favor of the home team where it’s sat leading up till kickoff.
With Kent State owning the nation’s No. 58 ranked scoring defense from a year ago and returning eight starters plus depth from that unit, it comes as no surprise to see linemakers lining this game’s total under 50 points at 47.5. It makes even more sense when you add to the fact that PSU routinely marches out solid defenses and returns five starters from the one that conceded just 21.8 points per game last season.
The total was immediately hit down to 46 the day it opened at BookMaker and hasn’t moved since. In fact, it might even go lower come kickoff.
Last Meeting
Though these programs haven’t crossed paths since 2013, the all-time series is one Kent State will most definitely want to forget. These teams have met twice dating back to 2010. The first meeting saw Kent State get outgained 384-233 and lose 24-0 as 21 point underdogs. It was a bad case of déjà vu the second time around as well, only this time Penn State went off the board as 22 point home chalk and cruised to the commanding 34-0 win and cover.
In the three meetings dating back to 2003, Kent State has dropped all three games by a combined score of 90-10.
Player to Watch
As good as the Golden Flashes were on the defensive side of the ball last season, the offense was just as bad if not worse. The unit scored an average of just 13.1 points per game good for the absolute worst mark in the entire country.
The offense does return nine starters, but is that really saying much of anything when you take last season’s output into account? Still, there are some nice pieces on the offensive side of the ball including running back Nick Holley and wide receivers Raekwon James and Kris White.
Be it Colin Reardon, George Bollas or a freshman under center, they’re going to have to excel in the passing game to allow for the offense to get much of anything done against a Penn State defense that will no doubt come out charged up for their home opener. If not, this is going to be yet another one-side romp that goes in the Nittany Lions favor.
Free ATS Pick
Penn State failed to cover two of its three non-conference home games last season as 17 point chalk against Buffalo – also out of the MAC – and as 25 point favorites against Army. It’s covered just one of its last five played non-con tussles but has gone a solid 4-1 ATS the last five times it squared off against MAC opposition.
Regardless of whether Kent State has more starters returning, the talent level is at a wide margin in favor of the home team. While I’m a big fan of excellent defenses that return a bunch of starters, I can’t help but get turned off by an offense that brings little big play ability to the table. This one will be tight and low scoring early, but the talent gap will show quickly, and once Penn State gets some separation on the scoreboard, it’ll be impossible for Kent State’s lame duck offense to even muster a couple back door drives.
College Football Odds: Penn State 33, Kent State 7
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