The LSU Tigers won their first seven games of last season to find themselves in the College Football Playoff mix, but three straight ugly defeats put an end to their national title dreams quickly. They gave up an average of 33 points per game in those defeats, so defensive coordinator Dave Aranda was brought in to shore the unit up. He’ll look to bottle his former team up – the Wisconsin Badgers – Saturday afternoon when these squads collide in the land of cheese.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field.
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LSU -10
Wisconsin +10
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
LSU originally opened as 9.5 point neutral field chalk and was bet up to 10 at -105 juice a couple weeks later. With the news of Heisman hopeful running back Leonard Fournette possibly working on a gimpy ankle, the betting public got in on the Badgers ultimately lowering the line to -8.5 briefly. Since then, it’s gone all the way back up to -10 with the heavy -115 juice riding Wisconsin. The betting action on the side is almost even with 58 percent riding the Tigers.
It’s been all one-way traffic on the total with the 48.5 point opener pounded south to 47 twenty minutes after opening. The following day, it plummeted to 44.5 and has held firm ever since. With each side sporting experienced defenses well versed in shutting down opposing run games, it’s hardly a shock the betting public expects a low scorer.
Coaching Angle
Many are of the belief that Les Miles saved his job by winning the final two games of last season which included the impressive 56-27 beat down of Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl. Still, the Tigers defense was gouged by Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi in the three losses that booted them from the CFP race.
Wisconsin owned the top ranked scoring defense in 2015. The stop unit conceded just fewer than two touchdowns per game to go along with a paltry 268.5 total yards per game (No. 2). The architect of that attack just so happens to be the guy now calling the shots in Baton Rouge for the Madhatter’s defense. He knows what Wiscy likes to do on the offensive side of the ball, and that bodes well for his unit that returns 10 starters from last season.
Matchup to Watch
The Badgers don’t bring much with them to the table offensively. Last year’s unit struggled mightily both on the ground and through the air. The surprising retirement of senior offensive linemen Dan Voltz will make life even harder for either quarterback Bart Houston or Alex Hornibrook to have much success passing the pigskin against one of the nation’s top secondaries.
LSU is extremely stout up front as well. If the defensive line is able to single-handedly shut Corey Clement and the rest of the Badgers ground attack down, Wisconsin won’t be able to move the chains, and with that, likely won’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard either.
Free ATS Pick
While I’m never one to point to the Top 25 rankings to prove one team is better than the other, especially at this point of the season, but the fact that LSU checks in at No. 5 and Wisconsin enters unranked is very telling. The Badgers were amongst the nation’s elite just a handful of years ago, but it’s been a steady decline ever since. Sure, they’re able to ugly games up enough to stick around, but this team is as vanilla as it gets heading into 2016.
They got next to nothing under center. A banged up running back that grossly underperformed last season. No wide receiver that can stretch the field and make a big play, and a defense that only returns five starters and replaced an outstanding coordinator with one that couldn’t get USC going the last few seasons. The only thing Wisconsin has going for it in this rematch with LSU is that the game is taking place near its own backyard. That likely won’t prevent the Tigers from making a statement and getting its 2016 campaign started off in the win column both SU and ATS.
College Football Odds: LSU 35, Wisconsin 13
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