Two teams that are pretty much polar opposites in every way will square off in Week 1 College Football action when the Missouri Tigers travel east to face the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Tigers pride themselves on their defense and after longtime coach Gary Pinkel retired in the offseason, it was only fitting that they promoted defensive coordinator Barry Odom to the top job. Meanwhile, West Virginia is firmly in the Big 12 mindset of always wanting to outscore its opponent and Dana Holgorsen’s mission is to put 40 points on as many teams as possible.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. This game will be broadcast on the FS1.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Missouri +10
West Virginia -10
Over/Under 50.5
Odds Analysis
West Virginia was a 10.5-point favorite when the line opened, but that number has since fallen slightly to 10 flat. The total dropped like a rock from the opener, free-falling from 54.5 down to 49.5 within a half-hour before stabilizing at 50.5.
Matchup to Watch
It will be strength vs. strength when West Virginia’s offense is on the field. The Mountaineers like to throw the ball and against all four of their non-conference opponents, including the bowl game, they scored at least 40 points.
Skyler Howard has a big arm and can make tight throws, but that arm can also get him in trouble. Howard threw an interception in nine straight games last season and although he is able to throw enough touchdowns to offset it in most games, that’s not always the case. The Mountaineers will need Howard to protect the ball against the Tigers.
Missouri had one of the best pass defenses in the country according to basic statistics, but when you factor in the quarterbacks it faced those numbers look far less impressive. The Tigers made their bones feasting on the weak quarterbacks of the SEC East and when it faced a real quarterback like Dak Prescott, the unit gave up over 300 yards through the air.
Player to Watch
Can Drew Lock move the ball through the air enough for Missouri to win this game? Lock was thrust into duty after Maty Mauk was kicked off the team and really struggled to get it going. He threw twice as many interceptions as he did touchdowns and was only able to lead the Tigers to one conference win.
Lock was highly rated coming out of high school but his confidence must be shaken after such an awful 2015. He failed to complete over 44 percent of his passes or top the 150-yard mark against any of his last six conference opponents. Lock should be an improved quarterback, but it would be hard for him to get much worse.
Free ATS Pick
Missouri has been absolutely snake-bitten along the offensive and defensive lines in the summer. Projected starting defensive linemen Harold Brantley and Walter Brady both figured to be key contributors this season, but the Tigers will be without either of them. The Tigers also got bad news on the offensive line as the only returning starter from last season, Nate Crawford, was forced to retire from football due to continuing back issues.
The Tigers’ woes along the defensive line are particularly good news for the Mountaineers. Missouri has racked up over 110 sacks over the last three seasons and West Virginia isn’t a great pass blocking team. This will help Howard get the time he needs to not rush throws and pick apart Missouri’s defense.
West Virginia is just a bad match-up for Missouri at this point. The Mountaineers don’t have a great pass defense, but can get pressure on the quarterback and force Lock to make bad decisions. Missouri will be a better team later in the season, but are likely to lose big in this one.
College Football Odds: Mountaineers 31, Tigers 14
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