The Tar Heels return most of their starters from last year’s team that went 11-3 but they will have a new quarterback as Mitch Trubisky replaces Marquise Williams. On the other side, the expectation level is sky high at Georgia as Kirby Smart takes over as head coach with Mark Richt now in Miami. The Bulldogs have a new quarterback in true freshman Jacob Eason and they have a star running back in Nick Chubb.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 5:30 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina +2.5
Georgia -2.5
Over/Under 56
Odds Analysis
The action on this game has been on the underdog as the Bulldogs opened as 3-point favorites. The number dropped down to as low as 2 before it settled back at 2.5.
It is hard to see any way that the public or the sharps will move this number back to -3 as the Bulldogs have a new head coach and a true freshman at quarterback.
The total on this game opened at 56 and was immediately bet down to 54.5 and dropped down to 53 before the buyback began. It would not be a surprise if the total closed at 56.5 or 57.
Matchup to Watch
This game should come down to whether or not the North Carolina defense can stop Chubb. Last year the Tar Heel defense wasn’t that great under coordinator Gene Chizik. The defense was a disgrace in the bowl game against Baylor as they gave up 645 rushing yards.
The Tar Heels return most of their starters from last season including everyone on the defensive line and in the secondary but whether that is good news or not is questionable.
Georgia is likely to keep things pretty vanilla with a freshman quarterback and that means a lot of Chubb. Last season, Chubb had 745 yards in his first five games and then he tore three ligaments in his knee and missed the rest of the season.
Chubb said he feels great and is ready for a big start to the season. “I feel great,” Chubb said. “Maybe in the beginning I wasn’t sure about myself — maybe that first day of camp — but after I got out there, I felt great. After I got tackled, I felt great.”
Player to Watch
One player to watch in this contest is Trubisky as he goes against the Georgia defense. The Bulldog defense should look very similar under Kirby Smart as it did under former coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. Smart will take what he did at Alabama and let new coordinator Mel Tucker run the system.
Trubisky is a big quarterback at 6’3 and 220 pounds and he will be expected to run the spread attack under Larry Fedora. Last season Williams was a solid dual threat quarterback and Trubisky looks to have the same type of skills.
Trubisky has some help around him including Elijah Hood who led a rushing attack that averaged 5.9 yards per carry a year ago.
Free ATS Pick
The Tar Heels simply can’t stop the run and Chubb should have a huge day. Normally there might be some concern with a freshman quarterback getting his first start but he should get a lot of easy looks with North Carolina focusing on stopping the run.
North Carolina is a notorious slow starting team as they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Georgia has done well of late against ACC teams going 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
I will lay the small number and take the Bulldogs in what is almost a home game in Atlanta. This should be a high scoring contest so I will take the game over the total.
College Football Odds: Bulldogs 41, Tar Heels 30
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