If the No. 13 Houston Cougars want to make the College Football Playoff, their road starts against the No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners. Although this game takes place in the city of Houston, it will be in the Texans’ stadium and thus have plenty of Sooners fans down from Norman. There’s no doubt that this is one of the premier games of College Football Week 1 and it’s a pseudo-elimination game for both teams in all likelihood as a Sooners loss will make it very difficult for them to get back to the playoff.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. The game will be broadcast on ABC.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma -10
Houston +10
Over/Under 68
Odds Analysis
Oklahoma opened as a 9.5-point favorite, but the line moved a half-point to a flat 10 a few days after. Many people expect this game to be a high scoring affair and the total shot up from 66 to 68 not too long after it opened.
Player to Watch
Baker Mayfield was fantastic last season. Mayfield had one of the best seasons in school history in 2015 and was the signal-caller for one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Sooners averaged over 530 yards per game and were only held under 500 total yards of offense four times all season.
Mayfield has to be salivating at the thought of going against Houston’s secondary. The Cougars run a 3-3-5 and only have one starter returning from last year. The projected starters are extremely raw and weren’t heavily recruited and will have a lot of trouble keeping up with Oklahoma’s receivers. As long as Mayfield has plenty of time to throw, he will be able to tear this defense apart.
Coaching Angle
If there’s one thing for Houston to hang its hat on, it’s that coach Tom Herman will figure out a way to put points on the board against Oklahoma’s defense. Multiple schools tried to pry Herman away after his phenomenal debut season at Houston that ended with a Peach Bowl win against Florida State.
Herman is unique in that he comes up with schemes according to the skills of his players rather than trying to force players to run his scheme, and that’s what brought Houston immediate success. He turned Greg Ward into one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation last season and Ward ended up throwing for 17 touchdowns and running for 21. Oklahoma has a checkered history when it comes to stopping offensive attacks like this and Mike Stoops will have his hands full.
Free ATS Pick
This game has the potential to be extremely high scoring. It’s doubtful that Houston will be able to hold Oklahoma under 40 and the Cougars could give the Sooners defense fits. Oklahoma’s defense had a lot of trouble against Deshaun Watson in the CFP semi-final and although Ward is no Watson, you can be sure that Herman has looked at the tape and found some weaknesses in that defense.
The X-Factor could be Oklahoma’s running game. The Sooners had varying results with their rushing attack last season with a very young offensive line, but that unit should be better this season. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon are one of the best one-two punches in the nation and if Oklahoma can establish the run, it will be a long afternoon.
Herman’s offense will be able to score, but it won’t be enough to keep pace with Oklahoma. The Sooners’ balanced attack is going to be very difficult for the Cougars to stop and it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Oklahoma score 50. Bob Stoops will get a big win here and the game will go over the total.
College Football Odds: Sooners 51, Cougars 34
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