The Week 1 non-conference clash between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Florida State Seminoles is technically taking place at a neutral site this year, but the stadium in Orlando is more than 500 miles closer to Florida State so the Seminoles could definitely have the advantage.
Both teams come in with playoff potential this year, as Florida State sits at No. 4 in the national rankings and Ole Miss is ranked No. 11 nationally. This will be good a test for both sides right off the bat and could put the country on notice that one of them is a legitimate national championship contender.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Monday, September 5, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi +4
Florida -4
Over/Under 57
Odds Analysis
Ole Miss had a really nice season in 2015 but lost a lot of talent to the NFL draft. Florida State lost some key pieces as well but has more returning, and the bettors are backing them. The Seminoles are the more common pick to cover despite the four-point cushion for the Rebels.
That spread may just keep growing as Florida State has become a fashionable pick to be a juggernaut in 2016. The scoring total has been hit on the “over” consistently as bettors see points consistently lighting up the scoreboard.
Matchup to Watch
Ole Miss will get a huge test right out of the gate against Florida State star running back Dalvin Cook. He has rushed for 2,699 yards in two seasons and could be a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate with some big performances.
The Rebels were solid defensively a season ago but must prove they can handle an elite running back. The Seminoles will star a redshirt freshman quarterback in Deondre Francois, so they may want to rely on Cook and the ground game early on until Francois gets his nerves under control.
Key Player
The Rebels senior quarterback Chad Kelly is the top quarterback in the SEC conference this year and is also among the top prospects looked at by NFL scouts heading into the season. Kelly threw for 4,042 yards last season with 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
He finished with a completion rate of 65 percent and also had 500 yards on the ground, so Florida State must be able to keep track of him at all times.
Kelly has found his way back after being kicked off Clemson in 2014 for conduct issues and playing a year at the community college level. He will be looking to finish his college career on a high note before heading to the NFL, and an upset of Florida State would be a great start.
Free ATS Pick
A lot of people are concentrating on what Mississippi lost this offseason. The team watched first-round picks Laremy Tunsil, Laquon Treadwell and Robert Nkemdiche go out the door, but there may be some underestimating going on about the impact of a star quarterback.
Kelly may need to find some new targets, but he is a huge piece returning for the Rebels. The team averaged more than 40 points per game a year ago and should be able to keep finding the end zone regularly with a standout under center.
Florida State had a stingy defense last year and will aim to keep Kelly under wraps. It’ll be interesting to see how this matchup plays out with each team’s strength matching up.
The SEC is usually the stronger conference but the Seminoles are confident they can hold up. The oddsmakers see it, too, but don’t be fooled. Ole Miss must go into a tough environment but the star qualities of Kelly will lead the Rebels to the upset win.
College Football Odds: Ole Miss 28, Florida State 27
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