Very few teams can match the offensive fireworks that we’ve come to expect from the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers under Jeff Brohm. Even though the all-time leading passer in school history is gone, the Hilltoppers are expected to just reload with Mike White, a transfer from USF. WKU will get an early chance to see just how good its offense should be this season with a Week 1 test against the Rice Owls, a team that it obliterated 49-10 last season.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Thursday, September 1, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET
at LT Smith Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Western Kentucky -16.5
Rice +16.5
Over/Under 63
Odds Analysis
This game has danced around 16.5 a bit since it opened, but there is nothing very significant to note about the line movement. It’s a bit surprising that the over/under is relatively low for a WKU game against a conference opponent though, as the Hilltoppers are 19-7-1 for the over under Brohm.
Player to Watch
Taywan Taylor is already WKU’s all-time leading receiver thanks to a stellar 2015 season. Taylor emerged as the team’s best receiving threat and racked up over 100 yards in seven games and caught a touchdown pass in 11 of the Hilltoppers’ 14 games. He is a tough match-up due to his propensity to find open spaces against zone defenses and his route-running ability.
He almost went to the NFL last season, but decided to return for one more year of fine tuning before playing on Sundays. Taylor’s biggest attribute is one that can’t be taught, the size of his hands. His hands help him latch onto passes that don’t even seem in his area code and turn incompletions into first downs. With a new quarterback taking snaps, Taylor is a safety valve who will see plenty of passes thrown his way.
Look-ahead Situation
You couldn’t really blame Western Kentucky for looking ahead a bit on its schedule. The Hilltoppers have to face the toughest team in all the land a little over a week after playing Rice, when they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the No. 1 Crimson Tide. This will be another chance to show just how far the program has come under Brohm.
WKU also faces Vanderbilt shortly after, and just like last season, would love to get a split against SEC opponents. Pasting conference foes does little to sway the minds of most college football writers, but actually going out and getting scalps against teams from Power Five conferences is another story. That means the Hilltoppers will likely show just enough to beat Rice in hopes of surprising Alabama with a few things and maybe putting a touchdown or two on the board.
Free ATS Pick
Western Kentucky housed Rice last year in a game that was never close. The Hilltoppers moved the ball at will through the air, and shut down Rice’s rushing attack, holding the Owls to just 2.5 yards per carry. WKU can expect to put up similar numbers offensively, but what about the defense?
The Hilltoppers defense returns just four starters from last season and loses 21 lettermen from last season. Those numbers are huge and will make it tough for WKU to stop opposing offenses early on at least. Rice has a coach in David Bailiff that has the mindset to exploit any vulnerability and that will keep the Owls in the game.
In the end, Western Kentucky will get the win but it will be a lot closer than people think. Bailiff can draw up a gameplan that will allow Rice to move the ball against this inexperienced defense, but Brohm’s boys will do enough to put more points on the board. WKU should get the win, but this is too many points to be laying.
College Football Odds: Hilltoppers 38, Owls 30
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