Life without Dak Prescott begins now for Mississippi State. The most lauded player in program history is now making heads turn during the NFL preseason and Bulldogs fans have to be missing him already. Prescott brought the Bulldogs to their first ever No. 1 ranking in the AP poll and leaves as the school’s leader in every major passing category. Mississippi State will take on the South Alabama Jaguars in College Football Week 1 with no clear answer regarding who will replace Prescott.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 12 p.m. ETat Davis Wade Stadium. This game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Alabama +28
Mississippi State -28
Over/Under 55
Odds Analysis
The side and the total have each moved quite a bit since the line on this game opened up. Mississippi State was originally a 32-point favorite and the line has moved down four points since then. As for the total, that opened at 58.5 and has since plummeted down to 55 flat.
Matchup to Watch
Who will replace Prescott is the big question heading into this game? Dan Mullen looks set to juggle quarterbacks against South Alabama. Nick Fitzgerald is likely to get the first reps as he was the backup last season. Fitzgerald has NFL size and a pro-caliber arm and looked good during spring and summer practices. He’s also a surprisingly adept runner and ran nine more times than he threw in mop-up duty in 2015.
The other quarterback set to see action is Damian Williams. Williams was the back-up in Starkville in 2013 and 2014, but redshirted last season to give himself two years of eligibility. He doesn’t have the size of Fitzgerald, but is an even better runner. Neither quarterback is anywhere near the talent that Prescott was, but Dan Mullen will make sure whoever ends up seeing the bulk of the action is prepared.
Key Stat
Whoever starts for the Bulldogs should have the luxury of being able to hand the ball off for four or five yards per carry if they get in a bit of trouble. South Alabama had a pretty porous run defense last season, allowing 5.4 yards per carry and were even worse against power conference opponents.
Nebraska and NC State each mauled the Jaguars on the ground, with the Cornhuskers averaging 7.0 yards per carry and the Wolfpack averaging 8.0 yards per carry. The unit has a solid nose tackle in Tre Alford but the other two defensive linemen have trouble occupying blockers and that’s a big problem in a 3-4. Brandon Holloway could have a pretty big game against South Alabama if Mullen gives him 20 carries or more.
Free ATS Pick
The initial spread was definitely way too high. A lot is going to be different for the Bulldogs without Prescott and it will take a game or two to figure it out. Fitzgerald and Williams have both shown talent, but neither has clearly distinguished himself over the other. That’s something the Bulldogs will have to determine quickly before the game against LSU in two weeks.
If Mississippi State doesn’t take South Alabama seriously, the Bulldogs will get in some trouble. Last season, the Jaguars surprised a San Diego State team that looked past them and ended up getting a win across the country. It’s unlikely that South Alabama can pull off an outright upset, but it could make Mississippi State sweat more than it wants to.
The Bulldogs will get the win here, but this number is still a bit high. Mississippi State will be testing out two new quarterbacks and probably won’t try to overburden either one, preferring each to just ease his way into the flow of the game. That should mean a comfortable win that goes under the number as well.
College Football Odds: Bulldogs 31, Jaguars 10
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