The South Carolina Gamecocks are used to being one of the first teams to play to kick off the new season. It’s been pretty successful for the Gamecocks too. South Carolina is 4-1 in its season openers since shifting its games to Thursday to be one of the premier games of Week 1 of the college football season. This season, the Gamecocks will start off with the Vanderbilt Commodores, the one SEC foe that South Carolina was able to defeat in 2015.
This contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Thursday, September 1, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Vanderbilt Stadium on SEC Network.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Vanderbilt -3.5
South Carolina +3.5
Over/Under 43
Odds Analysis
The line here has moved a half-point in favor of Vanderbilt since it opened, but has remained steady for the past two weeks. The home team has done a good job in getting the cover in this series of late. In the past five meetings between these sides, the home team has covered four times.
Key Stat
It’s hard to overstate just how good Vanderbilt was defensively last season, especially when you control for its completely inept offense. The Commodores finished with a turnover ratio of -8 in 2015 and averaged just 4.5 yards per play, one of the worst totals of any offense in the country. That meant the defense had to stay on the field for extended periods of time last season.
Regardless, the defense was superb. Vanderbilt allowed just 21 PPG and finished just outside the Top 25 in the S&P+ defensive rankings. The defense was especially good at tightening up in the red zone, and that was good since Vandy’s offense frequently made Vandy’s defense work with a short field and not much room for error. The Commodores defense held strong against the Gamecocks last season despite Vandy’s offense turning the ball over three times and should do so again.
Coaching Angle
Probably the biggest head-scratcher of a head coaching hire this offseason was South Carolina bringing in Will Muschamp. Many expected Muschamp to eventually get another shot at a head coaching position after a few successful years as a defensive coordinator job somewhere. However, getting a job in the same division he spectacularly failed at and then getting paid the money he did was a real head-scratcher.
Not only that, but you couldn’t find a more polar opposite to Steve Spurrier then Will Muschamp. Although both were coaches at Florida, Spurrier loved pass-happy offenses, while Muschamp only knew how to have his teams play solid defense and perhaps score enough points to squeak out a victory. South Carolina has defeated Vanderbilt for seven straight seasons and failing to beat the Commodores in the opener would not be an ideal start for Muschamp.
Free ATS Pick
The under is a pretty solid play in this game. Vanderbilt should again have a pretty solid defense and South Carolina’s will be much improved with Muschamp at the helm. Both teams won’t be too keen to throw it around a lot and that should make for a low-scoring affair.
These two teams are picked by many to be the bottom two in the SEC East this year and if either team wants to make a bowl this game is a must win. Each team is still picking up the pieces after its most successful coach in recent history left, but Vanderbilt is further along in the process than South Carolina is.
Derek Mason has slowly been rebuilding this team as a Stanford East over the past two seasons and it is built for games like this. The Commodores can do just enough on offense and fluster their opponent en route to getting a win and a cover in this one.
College Football Odds: Commodores 21, Gamecocks 17
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