All Frank Solich does is win games. Since Solich took over the Ohio Bobcats he has restored a once proud program and has only had one losing season in the past decade of football. Ohio has been helped by being in the easier part of the MAC, but this team just plays sound football. While Ohio has made a habit of going to bowls, the Texas State Bobcats will be trying to get to their first one and a win against Ohio in College Football Week 1 would go a long way to getting them to that goal.
The contest in Week 1 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Peden Stadium. This game will be broadcast on CBSSN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas State +21
Ohio -21
Over/Under 59.5
Odds Analysis
The line has stayed constant since it opened in this one, but the total has bounced around. The over/under originally opened at 59 and then went down two points, before rising back up to 59.5.
Key Stat
There were few teams as bad at stopping the run as Texas State was last season. Despite having a senior-laden squad, the Bobcats allowed over 3000 yards on the ground and 5.7 yards per carry. Only one FBS opponent was held under 100 yards by Texas State and most of that defense is now gone.
The Bobcats main problem was the style of defense it ran. Texas State ran a 4-2-5 defense and its linebackers just couldn’t fill the gaps needed to keep the secondary from getting run over. New coach Everett Withers is installing a 3-4 defense to help with this problem, but its linemen don’t have the size just yet to run it effectively. Ohio should be able to control the line of scrimmage and find room for its backs to run.
Coaching Angle
Perhaps the most important advantage Ohio has over Texas State is with its head coach. Solich was unceremoniously booted from Nebraska despite averaging 10 wins a season and the program has never found the same success. The Huskers’ loss has been the Bobcats gain though and Solich has made this team competitive every season.
Whereas Solich has coached in 218 games, Withers has only coached one season. He took over as the interim coach at North Carolina after the Butch Davis scandal and has bounced around ever since. He was last coaching at FCS James Madison and it was somewhat of a surprise when Texas State hired him to replace Dennis Franchione.
Free ATS Pick
Texas State is an extremely young team. The Bobcats lost 33 lettermen from last season and every position group has been ravaged with attrition. It will be tough sledding for this team early on, but the more it plays together, the better it will get.
Ohio doesn’t have the panache that some mid-major programs do and its success just flies under the radar. The Bobcats just seem to grind out seven or eight wins a season no matter what. This team has also been one of the better teams gambling wise over the last decade, with a 68-57-2 ATS mark under Solich.
In the Battle of the Bobcats, look for Ohio to emerge victorious and get the cover as well. Ohio hasn’t been this big of a favorite against an FBS team since 2013, but Texas State has a lot of issues it will need to work through. A new coach, new system, and new players mean that Texas State has a lot to overcome and a team like Ohio can just exploit its weaknesses. Solich’s team won’t score a ton, but won’t need to either in a game like this. Ohio gets the win and the cover in a somewhat low-scoring affair.
College Football Odds: Ohio Bobcats 34, Texas State Bobcats 10
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