Points should hit the board in earnest when the Toledo Rockets travel to Jonesboro to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in College Football Week 1 action on Friday. These two Group of Five schools were two of the best and most exciting to follow last season. The two combined to average 76 points per game in 2015 and moved the ball at will against most of their conference foes. To add intrigue to this matchup, Arkansas State will be looking for a bit of revenge after getting shellacked in the Glass Bowl by 30 points last season.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Friday, September 2, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at Centennial Bank Stadium on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas State -3
Toledo +3
Over/Under 65
Odds Analysis
Toledo money came in early to move this spread from 3.5 to 3 and it has remained there since with the juice fluctuating. As three is such an important number, it will take a decent amount of money to move it off of three and the spread should remain the same.
Player to Watch
Pittsburgh graduate transfer Chad Voytik is in a quarterback battle with Oklahoma transfer Justice Hansen, but is likely to be the starter against Toledo in the season opener. Voytik isn’t the best passer, but makes good decisions with the ball and won’t make mistakes. Mistakes killed the Red Wolves last year against the Rockets and his veteran presence will keep that from happening again.
Surprisingly, Voytik is also a capable runner. He’s not the most graceful quarterback outside of the pocket, but somehow he is able to get the yardage needed to move the chains when he runs. His versatility helps Arkansas State become stronger and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Blake Anderson use a package that lets him run free a little more.
Last Meeting
Toledo dominated every aspect of the game against Arkansas State last year. The defense was absolutely dominant, forcing five turnovers and racking up six sacks and held the Red Wolves to just a shade over 200 yards of offense, their second-lowest total all season. Key to that was a defensive line that not only got to the quarterback, but snuffed out any semblance of a running game.
This year’s meeting is unlikely to yield the same result. Arkansas State has five retuning senior starters along the offensive line and the unit really came on strong at the end of the year. The line will open holes for Warren Wand and Johnston White to run through and give Voytik plenty of time to pass.
Free ATS Pick
Toledo lost head coach Matt Campbell in the offseason and promoted Jason Candle up from his offensive coordinator spot to take the reins. Candle is just 36, but seems to have an acumen well past his years. In his four seasons as offensive coordinator, the offense lit up MAC opponents and he led the Rockets to an impressive win over Temple in the Boca Raton Bowl.
Even though Toledo loses Phillip Ely, it has a replacement who has already seen a lot of action in Logan Woodside. Woodside was the starter after Ely was injured in the 2014 campaign and made the most of his starts. Even though he was young, he was able to do just enough to help get Toledo to a bowl. Now it’s time to see what he can really do coming back from a season-ending injury in 2015.
This game should be a back and forth contest with both teams moving the ball with relative ease. Simply because of home field advantage and a new coach on the opposite sideline, Arkansas State is the better play in this game, especially at a flat 3 instead of 3.5.
College Football Odds: Red Wolves 34, Rockets 28
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