Row, row, row. The Western Michigan Broncos are one of the most fun college football teams in the nation under head coach PJ Fleck. Fleck has brought new life into a moribund program since taking over at the start of 2013 and with one more good season will likely be coaching a power conference program next season. He’s come close to leading his team to victories over Big Ten opponents and will look to get his first win against one when the Broncos face the Northwestern Wildcats in College Football Week 1 action.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 3, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Ryan Field. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Western Michigan +5.5
Northwestern -5.5
Over/Under 51.5
Odds Analysis
Northwestern was a 7-point favorite when the line opened, but since then the line has dropped a point and a half. It’s the total that has had the most movement though. The over/under opened at 56 and has since plummeted all the way down to 51.5 after a deluge of under bets, many of those likely placed because of Northwestern’s slow low-scoring style of play. Last season only three of the Wildcats’ games had at least 50 points scored.
Key Stat
Northwestern was great at winning close games last season, going 5-0 in games decided by a single score. The main reason behind that was a solid defense that held opponents to just 4.5 yards per play. The Wildcats were solid both stuffing the run and against the pass, posting their best numbers this decade in both of those categories.
The cause for concern for Northwestern is that other than Stanford, any time it faced a well-rounded offense it got slaughtered. The Wildcats’ were destroyed by Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee last season and all three teams ended up rushing for over 200 yards.
Coaching Angle
This will be the first time that PJ Fleck and Pat Fitzgerald square off and it should be an entertaining battle. There aren’t many coaches that get more out of less than Fitzgerald. He has helped Northwestern to continue to be a respectable Big Ten side after decades of failure and always has his teams playing sound, fundamental football.
Across the sideline, Western Michigan has the best recruiter in the program’s history, but the Broncos have yet to beat a high-profile opponent under Fleck. Fleck can motivate like no other though and this team has never taken a game off no matter the opponent. His team will be ready and rearing to go against Northwestern.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard not to respect what Fleck has done since coming to Kalamazoo. His youth and energy has led to him being able to out-recruit some Big Ten schools for recruits and many of those players are now entering their senior seasons. This should be his best team yet at Western Michigan.
The Wildcats frequently outperform expectations and even what advanced stats think of the team. Although the Wildcats only averaged one more point per game than they gave up, they finished with 10 wins. Fitzgerald has an uncanny knack to get his team to come through down the stretch and that may come in handy here.
Western Michigan is 5-2 ATS against power conference opponents under Fleck, but all but one of those games saw the Broncos as a double-digit underdog. This is the shortest of a dog WMU has been against a top team and the 5.5 points aren’t going to be enough. Northwestern has a talented young quarterback in Clayton Thorson that should only get better this season and he will have a good game against a shaky Western Michigan secondary. That will give Northwestern the win and the cover.
College Football Odds: Wildcats 31, Broncos 23
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
