The Commander-in-Chief’s trophy could be up for grabs on Saturday as the Air Force Falcons face-off against the Army Black Knights in Week 10 action. An Air Force win clinches the trophy for the Falcons, but a loss could leave the door open for the Knights to take the title for the first time in 20-years, though that would require a win over Navy later this year.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Blaik Field at Michie Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Air Force +2
Army -2
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
This should be a close game and the odds bear that out with Army sitting at 2-point favorites just as when the spread opened. The total, however, has been adjusted downward as bettors indicate they anticipate a lower scoring game. The spread has dropped three points since opening at 51.
The recent trends haven’t been kind to the Air Force. The Falcons are winless ATS in their last four games and have seen their defense take a hit in those last four games. Those four also all went over the total.
Across the gridiron, the Black Knights have covered in two of their last three games and in five of their eight overall. Opposite of the Falcons, the Army defense has generally been on point. Save an embarrassing loss against North Texas, the Knights have allowed just 33 combined points in the other three games they’ve played since the start of October.
Revenge Angle
Air Force has won, and covered the spread, in the last three games between these two teams and over the last 10 years, Army has been victorious just once, covering the spread only twice.
Army is well positioned to change that here in 2016. These two teams matchup well, meaning it really is anyone’s game, but the defensive play of the Black Knights lately certainly gives them a leg up against Air Force.
In the 20-3 win for Air Force last year, the Knights were only able to tally 169 total yards of offense and were 3-for-14 on third down opportunities, nabbing just nine total first downs. The offense was flat and despite an even split in time of possession, couldn’t do anything against the Falcons.
Air Force’s defensive struggles of late could lead to a very different story on Saturday considering Army’s determined to get some payback after being pushed around for years.
Player to Watch
The trends point in the direction of Army getting the win add in the home field edge and the struggling Air Force defense and it seems like a rather easy pick, but the loss against North Texas at home two weeks ago is concerning.
Heading into that game, Army was the 17.5-point favorites and yet they lost 35-18. A big part of that was quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw’s abysmal game, completing just 22-percent of his passes and throwing four picks.
Outside of that game, however, the QB has just two picks all year and while one did come last week against Wake Forest. He also throw a touchdown in that game, completed six of nine passes and amassed 145-yards. That’s huge for a team averaging 90.6 yards per game.
Of course, Bradshaw’s more about the run than the pass with 561 total rushing yards to his 474 in the air, but whether in the air or on the ground, Bradshaw is key to the Army’s success.
Free ATS Pick
This could be the perfect storm for Army. Their defense is clicking, setting them apart from the Falcons whose defense is going in the opposition direction.
Offensively, both teams are all about the ground game, but we saw Bradshaw and Edgar Poe matchup four times for 122 yards and a score in Week 9 against Wake Forest. It would be foolish to expect a big passing game from either team, but that’s at least encouraging that there’s an extra little wrinkle in the Black Knights’ offense. Add in the fact Air Force has allowed three passing scores in three of its last four games and a key play or two in the air could be a reality.
Overall, look for the Army to get out to an early lead and then use their strong defense to hold it. The loss to North Texas appears to be more of a fluke than anything while the poor trends for Air Force have a large enough sample size. The team’s been lost since beating Navy five weeks ago.
College Football Odds: Army 28, Air Force 23
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