The Arkansas State Red Wolves have won 12 straight Sun Belt games dating back to 2014 and are one of three teams currently undefeated in the conference. However, that hasn’t led to much respect from Vegas as the Red Wolves are just three point favorites in College Football Week 10 action against the Georgia State Panthers. Both of these teams desperately need a win if they want to remain in a spot to be able to win the Sun Belt championship.
This contest in Week 10 will go down Thursday, November 3, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas State -3
Georgia State +3
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
It’s been a turbulent year for the Red Wolves. Arkansas State lost its first four games of the season, all out-of-conference, and failed to cover in each. Things have been much more profitable since Sun Belt season started though, with the Red Wolves winning and covering all three of their conference games so far.
Georgia State is one of the hottest teams in the country despite its 2-6 record. The Panthers have covered six straight games at this point thanks to some large spreads and have played five of their last six games under the total.
Key Stat
There’s nothing that Georgia State does well on offense. The Panthers are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and no one has rushed for more than 200 yards yet this season. Through the air, Georgia State is completing just 55 percent of its passes for 6.52 yards per attempt and has thrown just as many interceptions as touchdowns.
Even worse for Georgia State, starting QB Conner Manning is unlikely to play against Arkansas State. In his place, the Panthers will have to start Aaron Winchester and he has played slightly worse than Manning on the season. Unlike Manning, Winchester adds another dimension to Georgia State’s offense with his running ability and that gives a bit more bite to an offense averaging just 19.8 PPG.
Matchup to Watch
Arkansas State typically has one of the top offenses in the conference, but this season has been rough for the Red Wolves’ offense. They are scoring just 23.1 PPG and the run game hasn’t been able to get anything going all season. Arkansas State is running for just 3.63 yards per carry and while that number has improved in conference play, it’s still poor.
That ground game is going to struggle to find room to run against a Georgia State run defense that has been one of the best in the Sun Belt. The Panthers are allowing less than 5 yards per play and that’s extremely impressive for a team that has allowed opponents to possess the ball for over 35 minutes a game.
Free ATS Pick
The total in this game is one of the lowest you’ll see all week at 45. That’s because the under is 6-2 in Georgia State games and 5-2 in Arkansas State games this season. However, four of the seven games these two teams have played in conference play would have gone over that number.
Justice Hansen has had his issues since taking over from Chad Voytik, but had his best game yet last week against Louisiana-Monroe. He threw for 303 yards and four touchdowns and for the first time all season finished a game interception free. He needs to play well for the Red Wolves to get the win here.
The under is the best bet in this game. Neither of these teams have been able to move the ball with any regularity throughout the season and will find it hard to in this one too. It’s harder to pick a side, but if the Red Wolves are less than a three-point favorite, that makes them a play as well.
College Football Odds: Red Wolves 20, Panthers 17
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