The Mississippi Rebels are having a rough season and that manifested itself in Week 9 when the team led after three quarters, but eventually lost by 11-points. They’re really struggling, losing three straight games mostly on the ills of their defense. The Georgia Southern Eagles offer a one-dimensional offense to contend with in Week 10, but that dimension doesn’t line up well with Ole Miss’s struggles.
Watch this regular season Week 10 matchup live on Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia Southern +27.5
Ole Miss -27.5
Odds Analysis
There are sizeable odds, pushing a four touchdown differential in this game and shortly after the initial odds opened, they grew by half a point.
The Eagles have lost four of their last five games. Even worse, Georgia Southern is just 1-7 ATS on the year, failing to cover the spread in six straight games.
On the other side of the gridiron, Mississippi isn’t exactly dominating the odds, either. They came up short of covering the spread in their last three games, including an upset loss against Arkansas. Overall, however, the Rebels still boast the superior ATS record with a couple good games against Georgia and Memphis at home.
Matchup to Watch
Ole Miss has a strong offense, but it fell short in Week 9 thanks to an abysmal run defense, allowing 307 yards to the Auburn Tigers.
Georgia Southern is a flawed team from a smaller conference, but they can run the ball. They’re ranked No. 21 in the nation with 239.9 rushing yards per game. Between Kevin Ellison, Wesley Fields and Matt Bredia, the Eagles have a strong triple-threat for the Rebels to worry about.
All three bring different elements to the table, but all three have more than 400 yards this year, but they’re combining for just seven touchdowns. That’s where this could fall apart for the Eagles: actually scoring. That said, the rest of the team outside those three have rushed for eight combined touchdowns with L.A. Ramsby scoring five on his own.
As for the defense itself, Ole Miss is allowing the 114th most total yards and are ranked No. 100 in scoring defense. While the passing defense isn’t particularly wonderful, it’s the rush defense that’s ranked No. 118 in the nation that’s really been the biggest issue.
After all, the struggles against Auburn were more a trend than a bad game. Prior to that, the Rebels allowed a LSU to rush for 8.9 yards per carry and allowed the Razorbacks’ Rawleigh Williams III to tally 180 yards. What makes that more telling is that performance by Williams was sandwiched between two games where he combined gain 68-yards.
While this would seem like a nice matchup for Georgia Southern to cover the spread, it is important to remember in Week 9 against Appalachian State this Eagles team totaled just 159 yards with only 65 coming on the ground with the vaunted running attack averaging just 2.5 yards per carry.
Look-ahead Situation
The Ole Miss Rebels are heavy favorites at home and have Texas A&M on the schedule next. It would be easy to overlook the lowly Sun Belt team, but with the Ole Miss recent string of losses, the Rebels cannot take anything—or anyone—for granted.
The Rebels need to continue to push even after gaining an early lead. They cannot let the Eagles chip away. They need to force Georgia Southern into the air as much as possible.
Speaking of the air, that’s where the Rebels’ offense does its best work. If they gain a quick lead, Chad Kelly may turn to running the ball or handing off to Akeem Judd. The two aren’t bad on the ground, but this isn’t where the Rebels thrives and to cover a 27.5-points margin, Ole Miss will need to continue running up the score with the arm of Kelly.
Kelly’s had a very good season, hidden on a bad team. He’s completing 61.8-percent of his passes for 2,532 yards and 18 touchdowns. Even in the midst of a loss to Auburn, he threw for 465 yards and three scores.
Free ATS Pick
Mississippi State’s linebackers haven’t been a positive factor all year. They won’t be a factor against Georgia Southern and the Eagles will, as a result, run all over the Rebels.
While that’s enough the game interesting and to do wonders for those playing the over on the total, it won’t be enough to capture the win. It will, however, be more than enough to allow the Eagles to cover such a large spread.
The Rebels are not a good enough team to garner that kind of a spread. The defense is too vulnerable. Sure, the Eagles offense went quiet against Appalachian State and in name the Rebels are a better, but the Mountaineers are the better defensive squad. The Eagles’ offense will fare better on Saturday and Georgia Southern will be about to score enough to cover the spread.
College Football Odds: Mississippi 38, Georgia Southern 23
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
