Fresh off their first loss of the season, the West Virginia Mountaineers will return home for Week 10 hoping to regain some momentum in a showdown with the Kansas Jayhawks. The Week 9 loss caused the Mountaineers to fall down to No. 15 in the nation, losing its undefeated status. The Jayhawks offer a great matchup to rebound, but with such a large spread, Kansas could be in position to cover for just the third time this season.
This contest in Week 10 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Mountaineer Field at Milan Pusker Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kansas +34.5
West Virginia -34.5
Odds Analysis
A lopsided affair if ever there was one, the Jayhawks and Mountaineers represent completely opposite ends of the Big-12 standings with West Virginia ranked No. 15 in the nation and sporting a 6-1 record while Kansas is winless in five conference games and a meager 1-7 overall. To make things worse, the Jayhawks are hitting the road and heading to Morgantown for this showdown.
As a result of this mismatch, the spread is 34.5-points. That shouldn’t be a shock. In fact, it’s held up in the early going without any movement.
Against the spread, the Jayhawks have been just about as bad as they’ve been straight up, going 2-6. West Virginia has covered the spread in two of their last three games, though the one exception was an upset on the road against Oklahoma State.
Letdown Spot
The loss to Oklahoma State last week was a punch in the gut to West Virginia’s chances of sneaking into the college football playoffs.
The Cowboys were tough matchup and the game was at Boone Pickens Stadium, but the Mountaineers were favored going in, but they came out cold and couldn’t keep up with Oklahoma State, failing to get much going on offense until the fourth quarter and failing to take care of business on defense.
West Virginia allowed Oklahoma State to throw for three touchdowns as Mason Rudolph completed 26 of 36 passes against the Mountaineers. West Virginia also lost the turnover battle, giving up a pair of interceptions and losing a fumble while unable to force a turnover on the other side.
The Jayhawks remain the punching bag for the Big-12, but with West Virginia’s undefeated season gone, the Mountaineers could have a bit of a letdown game. Of course, they’ll still win big, but this is a lot of points to cover if West Virginia doesn’t come out on top of its game.
Alternatively, the loss could be extra motivation. If West Virginia has even the slightest remaining chance at a playoff bid, they’ll need to win big the rest of the way.
Player to Watch
The Mountaineers are a balanced team. On offense, Skylar Howard is completing over 65-percent of his passes and he has a nice collection of dynamic receivers in Shelton Gibson, Diakiel Shorts and Ka-Raun White. Factor in the ground game behind Rushel Shell III collecting 206.8 yards per game and you have a very strong offense.
You can count on the West Virginia offense handling a porous Kansas defense, driving up the score, but just as importantly, the Mountaineers need to keep Kansas off the board to cover the spread.
We know the Jayhaws are not going to be successful running the ball. They’re ranked No. 124 in college football. The passing game, as a result, is the key factor and, most notably, Montell Cozart.
If Cozart can move the ball down the field and avoid the costly interception, he could lead Kansas to a successful drive or two. With such a large spread, that may be enough to cause trouble and West Virginia is coming off a game where it failed to record a single turnover.
On the flip side, Cozart allowed two interceptions without a touchdown pass in Week 9 and has just two touchdowns to seven interceptions in his last four games played.
Free ATS Pick
This is a lot of points to give in a conference matchup. Of course, the Jayhawks have been abysmal on the road with no better example than the 56-3 shellacking Oklahoma put on Kansas in Week 9. We could see a similar final on Saturday.
Oklahoma is a better offensive club than West Virginia, but the Mountaineers have the better defense and Kansas was only able to muster three points against the Sooners.
On Saturday, look for the Jayhawks offense to be non-existent and the defense to struggle to contain a Mountaineer team determined to show that their hiccup in Week 9 was nothing more than a fluke.
West Virginia wins big in a massive blowout. Of course 34.5-points is a heck of a gamble, but it’s one worth taking on Saturday.
College Football Odds: West Virginia 45, Kansas 6
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