The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have had a nice little run, winning five straight after a disappointing 1-3 start. The Bulldogs have done well beating up on the lesser teams and look forward to doing just that against the North Texas Mean Green here in Week 10. North Texas will get to play at home, but Louisiana Tech is 4-1 ATS on the road and that includes massive victories over Massachusetts and Florida International this month.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 10 game is set for Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 5:30 p.m. ET at Apogee Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Louisiana Tech -20
North Texas +20
Over/Under 66.5
Odds Analysis
Louisiana Tech is getting a lot of early play and the spread could jump up a bit more. It’s already up a half point from when the odds were released. The total has moved a bit, too, dropping a point.
The Mean Green have managed to beat Rice and Army on the road despite being sizeable underdogs. They also overcame a 13.5-point spread to top Marshall a few weeks ago. Those upsets make North Texas a hard team to peg. After all, they were just vastly overmatched in Week 9 by a Texas-San Antonio team that pales in comparison to Louisiana Tech in talent.
Surprisingly, that loss was only the third time all year the Mean Green couldn’t cover the spread. Louisiana Tech has been equally good ATS this season and is trending in the right direction. The offense is clicking and the defense has allowed fewer and fewer points in each of the last four. They beat Rice 61-16 in Week 9.
Matchup to Watch
The Bulldogs will score early and they will score often. North Texas does have a strong secondary that could contend with Louisiana Tech’s strong passing game, but it’s not like the Bulldogs cannot run the ball.
If with the Mean Green’s relative success against the pass, look for Ryan Higgins to have a big game. He’s completing close to 70-percent of his passes for a reason. His 2,914 yards is just a ridiculous number and the 26 touchdown passes to three interceptions is mind boggling.
On the ground, Higgins offers 5.1 yards per game, too, so he’s a mobile quarterback that can extend plays with his legs. And, Jarred Craft and Boston Scott are dynamic runners that allow for play action, screens and a number of other options that keeps the defense guessing.
With Louisiana Tech’s offensive output a near certainty, the biggest factor to the Mean Green’s ability to cover the spread is the offense and chiefly the passing game against a Bulldog secondary that’s allowing 282 passing yards per game, ranking No. 114.
Mason Fine has just 1,356 yards passing this year and has thrown for just five touchdowns against four interceptions. He’ll need to play a bigger role, but he has thrown a touchdown in five straight games and is coming off a 257-yard performance, the second most this year.
Key Stat
If the Mean Green are going to keep this game close and cover the spread, the defense will need to step up and record a few big stops, but the Bulldog offense has been nearly unstoppable the last four games, scoring at least 55-points in three of them.
Louisiana Tech has been able to convert on 52.8 percent of their third down opportunities this season. The Bulldogs were 7-for-11 last week in route to 735 total yards and a 45-point blowout. On top that, Louisiana Tech converted it sonly fourth down chance, while tallying 10 more first downs than Rice.
On defense, North Texas is ranked No. 97 in third down conversion percentage allowed on defense, allowing 56 conversions in 127 chances. On the other side, the Bulldogs are actually worse on defense in stopping first downs, ranked a couple spots below North Texas, but the Mean Green lack the firepower to take advantage.
Free ATS Pick
Look for North Texas to be over matched on Saturday. Louisiana Tech’s offense is on fire right now scoring just under 49 points per game in their last five games. Look for that offense to continue against the Mean Green.
North Texas doesn’t have a good defense and just allowed 31-points to the Road Runners. They also don’t have the offense to keep this close. Louisiana Tech’s secondary is beatable, but Fine has been, well, fine, but not great and he’s only got one more touchdown compared to interceptions.
The Bulldogs get out to an early lead and exploit some costly turnovers for the mean Green to extend that lead late.
Since their trying 1-3 start, the Bulldogs have torn apart their weaker conference opponents and that trends should continue on Saturday.
College Football Odds: Louisiana Tech 48, North Texas 21
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