The Maryland Terrapins are set up as the next victims for Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan will host Maryland in Week 10 looking to keep their undefeated season alive. A win seems all but a certainty, but a win against the spread is a different case. The Wolverines have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games and three of their last four outings.
This matchup in Week 10 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Maryland +30.5
Michigan -30.5
Odds Analysis
The odds haven’t changed since they were released with Michigan expected to win by 30.5-points. This is the fifth time this year the odds are at least 30-points in the Wolverines’ favor. Michigan is 3-1 ATS in those game, but that loss was just two weeks ago against Illinois.
While the Wolverines are 1-3 ATS in their last four games, there’s still good reason for such a lofty spread. This is a team that’s amongst the best in the sport in nearly every facet of the game, taking care of business on both sides of the ball.
Under center, the Wolverines have Wilton Speight completing 62.8-percent of his passes for 1,621 yards and a 13:3 touchdown to interception ratio. On the ground, the team has four players with at least 342 rushing yards, all averaging more than five yards a carry.
Eight different players have run the ball into the end zone while seven different receivers have hauled in at least one touchdown pass.
Meanwhile, across the gridiron, Maryland is a good defensive team against the pass with a solid pass rush and talented secondary. If not for the run, the Terps and could keep Speight relatively in check like they did against Jake Rudock last year, but Maryland’s defense isn’t typically able to do much against the run.
The offense is similarly one-sided, running the ball well, but ranking No. 110 in passing yards per game with just 171.8 compared to the 252 rushing yards.
Hills has been reasonably efficient when called upon, but it’ll be up to Ty Johnson and company to jump start this offense against the vaunted Michigan defense. After all, it’s that Wolverine secondary that can be particularly stingy.
Key Stat
Michigan has a strong offense, ranked No.3 in the nation in points per game though some of that falls to the defense that’s able to record key turnovers and get the offense excellent field position on a regular basis.
This defense is deadly. They’re allowing the fewest points and fewest yards in college football, giving up 11.6 and 231.2 respectively.
Perhaps most telling is what Michigan is able to do in the red zone. The Wolverines have allowed their opponents inside the 20-yard line just 12 times and of those 12 trips, five times the team has walked away without any points.
Last Meeting
Last year, Michigan dominated the game, but the differential still came in below the current spread line for Saturday.
In the game a season ago, Maryland couldn’t score, amassing just 105 yards, recording only seven first downs and going a mere 1-for-18 on third down chances.
Breaking the offense down further, Maryland’s Caleb Rowe threw three interceptions and overall the team threw for 76-yards. On the ground, Maryland ran for 29 yards on 26 carries.
This is an improved Maryland team from the one that showed up last year and while the game being played in Michigan makes a difference, the improvement by the Terps makes a bigger dent and should make up for whatever points are lost by the changing venue.
Free ATS Pick
Michigan is an elite team and will almost certainly get a crack at the National title, but 30-points is a lot to give against a team that’s 5-3 and 2-2 on the road. Maryland recorded an upset against the same Michigan State team that managed to close out the game against the Wolverines within nine-points. Further, Maryland recently kept the game within a score against Indiana on the road.
Maryland isn’t the cream of the crop in the conference, but the Terps aren’t the bottom of the barrel either. This team is in excellent position to secure a bowl game. Don’t be surprised if the game ends up being closer than the odds makers—and many bettors—expect.
Look for the Terps to run the ball relatively effectively despite a tough defensive matchup and come away with just enough to points to at least make this game somewhat interesting through the first half.
Yes the Michigan offense is great and yes they’re outscoring the opposition by 35-points per game, but Michigan State (a team Maryland beat) kept them within nine points in Week 9. This game isn’t a rivalry game like that one and won’t be as close, but take Maryland and the points to cover.
College Football Odds: Michigan 39, Maryland 13
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