Looking to extend its winning streak to six straight games, the Troy Trojans have a favorable matchup against a very weak Massachusetts Minutemen squad in Week 10. While Massachusetts is coming off a win, they played Wagner, a team that should beat with ease. Before that, the Minutemen had lost five straight and are just 2-7 overall; painting a lopsided showdown in favor of the home team.
This contest in Week 10 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Massachusetts +21.5
Troy -21.5
Odds Analysis
The spread opened over three touchdowns in the Trojans’ favor. While there was a quick movement downward in the spread, it still remains more than a three touchdown advantage.
There’s no past history between these schools to use in judging this matchup, but the win-loss record for the respective programs lead to little doubt in the expected outcome. With such a large spread, Troy needs to get the early lead and continue to put pressure on the Minutemen.
Massachusetts is used to the position of underdog. Before the Wagner game, they were dogs in their first eight games of the year. They covered in the last such contest, dropping the game against South Carolina by just six points despite a 20-point spread.
Matchup to Watch
The Trojans have a better offense and more diverse one, able to move the ball on the ground or in the air. Troy also boasts the superior defense overall, but the key will be the Trojan’s pass defense against the Minutemen’s passing attack.
Troy’s weakness is the pass rush and a porous secondary. Massachusetts isn’t necessarily the type of team to exploit that in full force, but if the Minutemen can use a couple big plays in the air to extend series and move the ball down the field, it could at least put them in a reasonable position to cover the spread.
Andrew Ford had a nice game to close out October, completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 355 yards and three touchdowns against a single interception.
Interceptions are a weakness for Ford who has thrown 11, but if the Minutemen are to cover the spread, they’ll need to do it on the strength of Ford’s arm. That’s a bit of a gamble given Ford’s inconsistencies. He’s racking up the yardage out of necessity rather than skill as there’s little on the ground to support him.
With that, he’s throwing early and often, regardless of the score and that’s led to a number of incomplete passes and him forcing the ball when the defense isn’t giving him an opening.
That’s were Troy’s defense comes in. The Trojans will have plenty of opportunities to pick off Ford. If they can capitalize on those chances a few times, Troy should easily cover the spread, but the Trojans are ranked No. 111 in pass defense. They’re giving up 271.9 passing yards per game.
Key Stat
There are countless mismatches in the stats that favor the Trojans to dominate, but perhaps one of the best indicates is the Minutemen’s dismal third down conversion percentage. Ranked amongst the worst teams in college football, Massachusetts is converting a meager 32.5-percent of their chances into first downs.
The road in that area shouldn’t get any easier against Troy. The Trojans are the tenth best defense in that category, allowing their competition to convert on third-down chances just 29.8-percent of the time.
As a result, look for a lot of third and outs for the Minutemen, giving Troy a distinct advantage in time of possession and plenty of chances with excellent field position. The Trojans will take advantage of those gifts to run up the score while the Minutemen will have to make the few series that they’re able to move the ball down the field pay off.
Free ATS Pick
This is going to be a lopsided game. Yes, the Minutemen have a chance to cover if their passing attack can exploit a rough Troy secondary, but I don’t know if Ford and company can do that.
Massachusetts’ is only ranked in the middle of the pack in passing yards and that’s just because they’ve thrown the ball so much in an attempt to counter a nearly non-existent rushing attack.
In every other facet of the game, the Trojans are better than Massachusetts.
I expect Massachusetts to reach the end zone a couple times, but they cannot stop the Trojans on defense. Brandon Silvers is a strong quarterback with a much better touchdown to interception ratio than Ford. As a whole, Troy is far less prone to the turnovers.
On the ground, Jordan Chunn will be able to move the chains. He’s averaging more than five yards a carry. Bank on plenty of points by Troy.
College Football Odds: Troy 42, Massachusetts 17
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