The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Navy Midshipmen will journey to Jacksonville in a Week 10 showdown. The Irish lead the series against Navy by a landslide, 76-12-1, but Navy has at least covered the spread in two of the last three years. Nevertheless, Notre Dame took advantage of a number of turnovers to capture the win last season, but the Midshipmen have done a pretty good job holding onto the ball here in 2016.
This contest in Week 10 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 11:30 a.m. ET at EverBank Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Navy +6.5
Notre Dame -6.5
Over/Under 67
Odds Analysis
The spread jumped up a point since it opened and the total is also up from its 65.5 opening number.
Navy enters play with better marks both straight up and against the spread. Overall, the Midshipmen are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS compared to the Irish who sit at 3-5 both SU and ATS.
The Fighting Irish did cover in Week 9 against Miami, but just barely, winning the game by three despite having a 20-point lead that was eventually turned into a deficit following 27 unanswered points by the Hurricanes. Fortunately, a 41-yard run by Josh Adams and last minute field goal salvaged the win both SU and ATS.
As for Navy, they’re coming off a disappointing showing against South Florida, failing to cover the six point spread on the road in a seven point loss.
Matchup to Watch
Brian Kelly has a more versatile offense than Navy in that they can move the ball in the air or on the ground, but Navy has the better overall numbers thanks to the triple-option. You know that the Midshipmen are going to pound you on the ground, but they’ve got the talent and skill to take care of business.
Last year in their loss to Notre Dame, Navy rushed for 318 yards. The Irish didn’t exactly shutdown the running game, but that was below the average yards per game for the Middies. More notably, however, the Irish were able to force turnovers. The Navy option offense is not only about scoring points, it’s about winning the time of possession advantage and keeping the defense off the field. The turnovers undercut that.
This year, the Irish have been an average defense against the rush, but in Week 9, Miami ran 35 times, netting a mere 18 yards. Before that, however, Stanford rushed for 176.
There’s a lot of youth on defense and that’s played into the inconsistencies up front on defense. With those inconsistencies, look for a few big stops and maybe a key turnover or two, but that may not be quite enough to slow down the Midshipmen, particularly as the Irish are also likely to allow a few huge plays as a result of blow coverage and/or key blocks by Navy.
The Irish will try and record a few big stops behind the line of scrimmage, but that’s been a challenge on the year. They sacked Miami’s Brad Kaaya five times which is encouraging, but Notre Dame as only 11 total sacks all year.
Key Stat
Turnovers did in the Midshipmen last year, but this season it’s the Irish that’ve had the most issues holding onto the ball. They’ve got a -5 turnover margin as their youth shines through at times.
Those errors—albeit not necessarily on offense or defense—in Week 9 almost cost them a victory despite a large early lead. Those errors could also play up against a Navy team that’s one-dimensional, but very good at what they do.
For Navy, it’s all about securing the ball on offense and keeping the defense off the field. The Midshipmen defense is not one you can depend on for big stops of key turnovers.
Free ATS Pick
The total has risen since the spread was released as you can expect a lot of points in this one with the Irish airing it out and running with ease to combat the strong option offense for Navy.
Look for a very close game and with a spread approaching a full touchdown, take Navy and the points to cover though the Midshipmen may win this game outright.
The youth for Notre Dame will cause the Irish to fall short. We’ve seen the inexperience play a big role this season already and even in their victory over Miami in Week 9 there were some issues, primarily on special teams.
With this game likely to be all about offense and with both offenses expected to take care of business, special teams could very well be the differentiator.
Also, while the win over Miami could be seen as a momentum builder for the Irish, it’s also a warning sign as they almost let one slip away.
College Football Odds: Navy 42, Notre Dame 38
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