In what’s likely the most intriguing matchup of the Week 10 schedule, the Nebraska Cornhuskers journey to Ohio to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in a battle of top-10 teams. Both of these teams are 7-1, but not playing up to potential. They’re each in need of a big win to help their stock, each pushing for playoff consideration.
This matchup in Week 10 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nebraska +17.5
Ohio State -17.5
Over/Under 52.5
Odds Analysis
A near upset in Week 9 aside, the Buckeyes were set at 13.5-point favorites when the odds opened and the line has grown from there to suggest bettors anticipate Ohio State to end with a three score margin.
The total hasn’t seen as much movement, but it did drop a point and a half from 54 to 52.5.
After a dynamic start to the season with four straight wins SU and ATS, the Buckeyes haven’t covered the spread in four straight games with the last two exceptionally disappointing.
Nebraska bettors can relate as the last few weeks have yielded a number of close games for the Huskers, too. That said, they’ve fared better ATS, covering in two of their last three games and only losing ATS in two of eight games.
Key Stats
There’ve been a few mistakes for both teams over the last handful of games. Both teams have been able to maintain their top-10 rankings, however, due to their success on turnovers.
Both Ohio State and Nebraska rank amongst the top 24 teams in college football in turnover margin with the Cornhuskers tied for 24th with a +5 margin and the Buckeyes fourth at +10.
Defensively, Nebraska has forced at least two turnovers in three straight games and will hope to do the same thing against J.T. Barrett and the Ohio State offense, but Barrett has only thrown four interceptions this year and the team’s only allowed six turnovers.
Nebraska, on the other hand, has Tommy Armstrong Jr. under center and he’s had trouble throwing the ball. He’s completing just 53-percent of his passes and has a touchdown to interception ratio of 11 to 7. With that, Marshon Lattimore and Malik Hooker are going to be all over him in hopes of forcing some key mistakes.
Given the numbers, Ohio State should win the turnover battle, but historically Barrett has been prone to picks. He’s thrown three in his last five games. Nebraska’s defense needs a couple takeaways to have a legitimate chance for an upset on the road.
Revenge Angle
This isn’t exactly revenge against Nebraska so much as revenge for a couple bad—at least for their standards—weeks for Ohio State.
After dropping a game to Penn State, the Buckeyes barely escaped with a win against Northwestern last week despite being 26-point favorites according to the oddsmakers. That cost Ohio State a bit in the rankings and they need a huge showing against Nebraska to regain some of that ground and reverse the downward trend.
Of course, the Buckeyes are not alone in their late season swoon. The Cornhuskers were undefeated as recently as last week, but a 23-17 loss to Wisconsin in overtime put an end to that. Immediately prior to that, Nebraska had been barely scrapping by against Illinois, Indiana and Purdue prior to that.
Both Ohio State and Nebraska need a statement win on Saturday.
Free ATS Pick
The Buckeyes have the best offensive unit in the Big Ten and are stacked with talent in the skill positions. They also boast a strong offensive line and are netting just shy of 500 yards per game. That’s clearly an advantage over Nebraska.
Ohio State also has the edge on defense, ranked No. 6 in the nation with 15.1 PPG allowed. While the Cornhuskers have a strong defense themselves, they’re still giving up 3.3 more PPG.
Overall, the only area that the Huskers may have the edge in on Special Teams thanks in part to De’Mornay Pierson-El. While that could result in better field position, it’s unlikely to make enough of a difference to cover off the Buckeyes’ advantages and secure an upset.
Ohio State has the better talent and thus gets the win, but both of these teams have flaws. Look for the game to end close enough for the Cornhuskers to cover with Nebraska keeping the deficit to two scores.
College Football Odds: Ohio State 38, Nebraska 24
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