The USC Trojans have really turned things around in the month and unfortunately, time is running out for the Oregon Ducks to do the same for their season. After starting the season 1-3, the Trojans come into this Week 10 Pac-12 matchup against the Ducks with a four-game winning streak in tow.
The Ducks got their first win in five weeks last Saturday, running all over an injury-riddled Arizona State team, but now face the tough task of upsetting a sizzling USC team on the road in this conference matchup. Oregon isn’t rarely a heavy underdog but this season hasn’t gone to plan and it will attempt to buck those odds.
This contest in Week 10 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon +17
USC -17
Over/Under 78.5
Odds Analysis
Oregon showed some signs of life and gets a big cushion to start as 17-point underdogs, but still the money is on for USC to cover and roll in a blowout. The Trojans are getting more than 60 percent of the action.
The scoring total is high, as expected, with Oregon in the matchup and even though the over/under has moved up a point over the past day the heavy money is still choosing the “over.”
The Ducks have been poor against the spread this season, not a surprise since they have underachieved. Oregon is 3-5 straight up and 1-5-2 against the spread. USC is 5-3 straight up and 4-3-1 against the spread, including an undefeated mark both as the favorite and at home.
Player to Watch
Ronald Jones III - A season ago, there was nothing but excitement surrounding the freshman USC running back and last weekend the now-sophomore reminded Trojans fans what all that optimism was about. With leading rusher Justin Davis out with an ankle injury, Jones delivered a dynamite day in the big win over Cal.
Jones rushed for a career-high 223 yards on 18 carries, averaging 12.4 yards a carry. He had one touchdown in the win. He has paired nicely with Aca'Cedric Ware since Davis’ injury in Colorado and will look to continue that trend this week against Oregon with or without a healthy Davis.
Key Stat
529.8. That’s how many total yards this Oregon defense is allowing opponents per game this season. And that’s just crazy.
The Ducks defense ranks 125th in the country for points allowed as well, allowing 42.3 a game. The team has the luxury of being paired with a high-powered offense that averages 519.1 yards a game, but the lack of defense is still alarming.
Three teams have dropped 50 or more points on the Ducks this year, with Washington hanging a season-high 70 points on Oregon on October 8th. Even in last week’s win, Arizona State managed 35 points with third-string, true freshman quarterback Dillon Sterling-Cole at the helm for the Sun Devils.
ATS Pick
USC has climbed back into the Pac-12 South race after a slow start and now sits tied with Utah and just a half-game back of Colorado. Games like this at home as a heavy favorite are must-wins, and the Trojans need to be able to contain the Oregon rushing attack.
The Ducks finally turned it around last week but doing so at home against a subpar Arizona State team is different than winning on the road against the Trojans. This one will be a tough task, and an upset seems unlikely.
However, this spread is too high considering Oregon does have a lot of offensive talent. USC has hit a groove of late, but this win will be hard-fought.
Expect Oregon to cover this spread while the Trojans come away with the victory.
College Football Odds: USC 41, Oregon 33
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