The Boise State Broncos were the leading candidate to obtain the Group of Five spot for a New Year’s Day Bowl before last week. Then, a loss to Wyoming threw those chances for a spin as well as their chances to win the Mountain West. In College Football Week 10, Boise will face off against a team that is having an awful year in their side of the conference in the San Jose State Spartans.
This contest in Week 10 will go down Friday, November 4, 2016, at 10:15 p.m. ET at Albertsons Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Jose State +30
Boise State -30
Over/Under 57.5
Odds Analysis
The Spartans secured their second conference win of the season last week against UNLV in what was their first outright win as an underdog. However, they are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games and haven’t covered a game against Boise in any of their last five meetings.
Boise has really struggled covering this season. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS and although they are 7-1 SU they simply haven’t been able to cover the large spreads Vegas asks them to. Each of their last three games have gone under the total and 5 of the last 7 matchups between these two sides has gone under as well.
Player to Watch
Jeremy McNichols has cracked the 100-yard plateau in all but two of his games this season and has shined throughout for Boise. McNichols is on pace to top his 20-touchdown performance from last year and continues to be a dynamic threat out of the backfield as well, with 390 receiving yards through eight games.
He isn’t a tall back at just 5’9, but he is able to lower his pad level and run with authority when called upon. If it weren’t for Donnel Pumphrey down in San Diego State, he would be considered the best back in the conference but he hasn’t gotten the recognition he deserves because of Pumphrey’s brilliance. Assuming McNichols continues to shine, the respect should come soon.
Last Meeting
San Jose State took a lead into the second half in last year’s meeting against Boise State, but the Broncos proceeded to score 24 straight in order to cruise in the second half and put the game away.
McNichols was the best player on the field for the Broncos, carrying the ball for 192 yards and two touchdowns. He was the catalyst of a running attack that tallied just over 300 yards on the ground and his ability to run made it a lot easier for Brett Rypien to throw the ball.
While McNichols flourished, Tyler Ervin was stuffed by Boise last season and instead it became the Kenny Potter show. Potter had one of his best games of the season, completing two-thirds of his passes for 336 yards and three scores and although he through two picks his performance gave the Spartans a chance.
Free ATS Pick
San Jose State has looked pretty bad this season and is fortunate to be in the bad half of the Mountain West. The Spartans are not able to run the ball at all in 2016, picking up just 3.7 yards an attempt, and Potter has regressed. The defense is still as bad as ever too and that’s a major problem.
The Broncos play some of the most versatile running attacks in the nation and have struggled in recent weeks with stopping the run. This week they shouldn’t have anything too hard to handle in that department against a Spartans team that doesn’t get too wacky with formations.
This has the makings of a game that Boise State runs out to a big lead in before losing focus and subsequently losing the cover. The Broncos will score a lot, but SJSU will hang around.
College Football Odds: Broncos 45, Spartans 17
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