This has been a back and forth series between the Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs. With no team winning this showdown in back-to-back years since they started playing each other annually in 2012. This 2016 showdown could change things. You have a top-10 team in the Aggies squaring off against a below-.500 Bulldogs squad here in Week 10.
This matchup in Week 10 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas A&M -14
Mississippi State +14
Odds Analysis
The Aggies bounced back from a tough loss to the Crimson Tide to take care of business against New Mexico State, but it wasn’t quite enough to cover the spread and Texas A&M failed to cover the spread for the fourth straight games after covering the first four games.
Not quite the 43.5-point spread bettors had to decide on last week, but the recent trend for the Aggies ATS is concerning, but bettors aren’t gun shy. The Aggies started off as 12-point favorites when the odds dropped, but that’s already grown to a full 14-point spread.
Mississippi State’s struggles this season are, of course, a big part of that equation. The Bulldogs failed to cover a 21-point spread against Samford in Week 9 and failed to beat Kentucky in Week 8 despite being favored by nearly a touchdown.
Last Meeting
The Aggies hosted the Bulldogs last season and captured the early lead, carrying it to the 30-17 victory, easily covering a meager 4-point spread.
In that game, Kyle Allen threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns in the win with Tra Carson adding 110 yards and a score on the ground.
On the other side, it was all Dak Prescott keeping the game close. He threw for 210 yards and added 96 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
None of those three are back this year, but the Aggies have done the better job filling the void. Without Prescott, the Bulldogs offense is okay, but have scored eight less points per game than the Aggies.
For the Aggies, Trevor Knight has provided a solid arm to lead the passing attack and some wheels, coupling with Traveon Williams to gain 1,305 yards and scored 15 rushing touchdowns. The Texas A&M offense is dynamic, ranking No. 14 in rushing and No. 15 in passing. Those totals have led to the 16th most total yards per game and the No. 22 ranked scoring offense.
Matchup to Watch
These teams are very different from the two teams that met a season ago, but one thing is the same: the Aggies have a strong offense. Can that offense be stopped, or at least slowed, by the Bulldogs?
Mississippi State is allowing 30 points per game and 418.6 yards per game. The Bulldogs have also allowed at least 40-points in back-to-back games against Samford and Kentucky.
In the Kentucky game, the Bulldogs allowed 554 total yards, including 292 in the air against the No. 106 passing offense. In the next game Samford scored 41-points with 468 passing yards and four touchdowns. To Mississippi State’s credit, they did pick Samford’s quarterback off three times, but the yardage is a major concern going into the game against a top-10 team with a very strong quarterback.
Knight’s legs makes him even more dangerous, but watch what he does with his arm on Saturday. The Bulldog secondary has been bad and could really be tested with the deep threat of Josh Reynolds and the reliability of Christian Kirk.
Free ATS Pick
Look for the Aggies to score early and often, easily topping the Bulldogs by at least three scores.
We’ve seen the Bulldogs fail to stop mediocre passing offenses. Knight should be able to tear up the secondary and move the ball on the ground effectively, moving the chains and keeping drives alive.
Mississippi State’s best hope to cover is to keep up the pace, leaning on their own offense. Without Prescott, we’ve seen an ordinary Bulldogs offense by the numbers that looks better as a result of exploiting the lesser teams like Samford, Kentucky and Massachusetts. Take out those three opponents and the Bulldogs are averaging just 20.4 points per game against the other teams.
Bank on a similar point total for Mississippi State on Saturday and look for the Aggies to land around their season point average. Should that happen, that’s enough of a gap to cover the spread. The only wildcard here is that this game is at Mississippi State though the Aggies have won two of three road games and Bulldogs are 1-3 ATS at home.
College Football Odds: Texas A&M 42, Mississippi State 23
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