Injury could put a damper on what should have been a fun rivalry game in the Lone Star State. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are at home to host the Texas Longhorns in Week 10 and will be trying to win back-to-back years over Texas after snapping the Longhorns’ six year winning streak a season ago. The last time the Red Raider topped the Longhorns in back-to-back years was 1997 and 1998.
Watch this regular season Week 10 matchup live on Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
The odds are very much up in the air right now as the Raiders’ biggest strength is up in the air with the health of Patrick Mahomes II as will be discussed below.
Outside of the dominance in the air, the Red Raiders are amongst the worst teams running the ball and they have a defense that’s allowing 41.4 points per game. They struggle stopping the pass and the rush. The defensive line cannot put pressure on the quarterback and secondary is littered with blown coverages.
Injury Report
The line hasn’t been set since Mahomes’ status is still up in the air. He injured his shoulder in the Week 9 win against TCU and remains questionable.
There’s no more important player for either team that the Texas Tech QB who has led the Red Raiders to the No. 1 passing offense based on yardage. Overall, the Red Raiders rank No. 2 in scoring offense with 47.4 points per game and tops in total offense with 603.4 total yards per game. That, however, is in spite of no discernable running game.
Mahomes is completing 67.7 percent of his passes which is out right remarkable considering how often he’s been asked to throw the ball. He’s also allowed just seven interceptions to 28 touchdowns and has already raked up 3,519 yards in the air.
As scary as it is, Mahomes is also the team’s primary weapon on the ground. He’s 13-yards shy of Demarcus Felton for the team lead at 276, but he’s rushed for 10 touchdowns.
If Mahomes doesn’t play, Nic Shimonek will start under center. He’s been rather efficient in limited action, though most of that came in garbage time when the Raiders had wrapped up the win.
Still, he’s completely 67.3 percent of his passes for 8.4 yards an attempt and has six touchdowns to one interception over 55 attempts. Those are strong numbers, but just how does that play out when starting against a team like the Longhorns?
Key Stat
Both teams can move the ball down the field so given the matchups, turnovers will be key.
Neither defense does a great job stopping the opposition on third down chances or in the red zone, both teams are very familiar with the shootout and without the ability to come up with a big defensive stop with any regularity, turnovers play an even bigger role than they otherwise would.
Over the course of the season, Texas falls in the middle of the pack in turnover margin, allowing 11 turnovers and recording 11. Texas Tech has also allowed 11, but the defense hasn’t been able to nab many turnovers from the opposition, recording just two fumble recoveries and four interceptions, leaving the Raiders with a negative turnover margin.
With Mahome out, that differential could play even larger.
Look for both offenses to essentially run up and down the field at will so turnovers mean chances and significant swings in points.
Free ATS Pick
Until Mahome’s status is certain, it’s hard to pick a winner for this game. Shimonek should fill in reasonably well, but you cannot expect as much from a player that’s not really seen meaningful time this year.
If Mahome makes the start and is at full strength, or a close proximity thereof, the Red Raiders have a nice chance to get the win in another close, high scoring affair. If not, don’t look for the defense to step up and don’t look for the running game to be able to shoulder a bigger load. In that case, the Longhorns get back into the win column.
Both teams are big offensive juggernauts with defenses that should easily allow the score to skyrocket which is excellent news for bettors taking the over on the total.
For now, don’t count on Mahome to be ready and even if he is, don’t count on him being full strength. That gives the Longhorns an in on the road.
College Football Odds: Texas 47, Texas Tech 42
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