Both the Akron Zips and the Toledo Rockets were upset as double-digit favorites last week. Akron suffered an embarrassing loss to what was previously thought to be the worst team in the conference in Buffalo, while Toledo was outplayed by a game Ohio team. These two teams still control their own destiny but each needs a win in order to continue to control their own destiny in this College Football Week 10 match-up.
Kickoff for this Week 10 game is set for Wednesday, November 2, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Toledo -8.5
Akron +8.5
Odds Analysis
Toledo was great in out-of-conference play this season, running up a 4-0 ATS record. During that time, the Rockets played three of their four games over the total. Things changed when they got into conference play though. The Rockets have been a double-digit favorite in each of their MAC games this season and are 1-3 ATS in those four.
The Zips have been streaky when it comes to betting the total in their games this season. Akron’s first five games of the season went over the total but each of its last four has ended up under. The last two have gone under by a combined 4.5 points though so it’s not like the games are sailing short of the total.
Player to Watch
It’s been a fantastic season for Logan Woodside so far. He has notched a QB Rating of at least 166.7 in each of his starts this season and has thrown at least three touchdowns in each as well. Woodside is one of the nation’s leaders in yards per pass attempt, averaging 10.48 yards a throw, and is the reason this offense moves the ball so well.
Woodside completes a high percentage of his passes and that has helped the offense with its efficiency. He has hit the 70 percent mark in each of his last five starts and has the offense in a rhythm. If there’s one thing he’s not good at, it’s his limited mobility. He can’t extend plays with his legs like other quarterbacks, and is almost a statue in the pocket.
Matchup to Watch
The Zips aren’t that good at running the ball, but will need to establish the run against the Rockets if they want a chance to win. Akron doesn’t have a running back with more than 400 yards this season, and is averaging just 4.5 yards a carry, but QB Thomas Woodson hasn’t looked the same since coming back from an injury. Woodson was awful in the Zips’ loss to Buffalo last week and this running game needs to step up.
In Toledo’s two losses, the opposing team was able to run the ball at will on this Rockets defense. Against BYU, Jamaal Williams ran for 286 yards and last week in the loss to Ohio, Dorian Brown racked up 212 yards on the ground. The Rockets’ run defense can be exposed and Terry Bowden’s Zips will need to do this.
Free ATS Pick
The Rockets have shined on third downs both offensively and defensively this season. Toledo has converted an impressive 52.14 percent of its third down attempts on the season while allowing opponents to convert on just 21.9 percent of their attempts. That has helped them score 39.4 PPG on the year.
Akron is going to compete for much of the game, but doesn’t have the horses to match up late. Woodside and the Rockets’ offense can put pressure on a defense that is allowing 34.2 PPG this season and shouldn’t have any problem scoring points. Look for Toledo to pull away enough in the fourth quarter to get the cover here.
College Football Odds: Rockets 38, Zips 27
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