The Central Florida Knights will get a second chance to host the Tulane Green Wave after their original scheduled game back in October was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew. Now these two teams will square off in Week 10 action with UCF in the midst of a nice bounce back season. The Knights will hope to take advantage of a Tulane team that’s 0-4 in conference.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 10 game is set for Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 5 p.m. ET at Bright House Networks Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tulane +16
UCF -16
Odds Analysis
0-4 in conference and in the midst of a three game losing skid, the Green Wave do at least boast a winning record ATS at 4-3-1 making this game worth watching from a betting angle.
On the other side of the field, the Knights have over performed expectations and as a result have beat the spread in all but two games. Even with their loss to the Cougars in Houston, they covered the spread, keeping the game against one of the AAC’s better clubs to within a single score.
The spread is heavily skewed in UCF’s favor and is growing. After opening at -15 for UCF, it’s jumped a point.
Matchup to Watch
Freshman McKenzie Milton has been a good answer under center in his debut season. He hasn’t led the team to a top ranked pass offense, but he’s done his job. He’s completed 60-percent of his passes and has posted two touchdowns for every interception.
Despite being below average in yards per game at 376.6, the team is ranked No. 53 in scoring offense, tallying 31.1 points per game.
That offense gets to match up against a defense that’s been much the opposition: doing a good job at limiting yards, but ranking No. 70 in points allowed.
That’s all good and we can expect the Knights to put up some points. The big difference maker is the Tulane offense.
The Green Wave does not put the ball in the air. They run it at you and do a pretty good job of it. Dontrell Hilliard has 640 yards and eight touchdowns and along with Josh Rounds and Lazerdrick Thompson is averaging more than six yards a carry. The three have combined for 17 rushing scores.
Can UCF shut down the run? The Knights have a strong defensive line. They did well against the Cougar’s ground game and has actually completely shut down some running games this season, including East Carolina’s. The Pirates rushed for just 33 yards on 32 carries.
Key Stat
Tulane’s had a tough season, really struggling in conference action, but the Green Wave are one of the better teams in turnover margin. Tulane has a worse margin than just three teams in college football with 19 turnovers gained and just nine lost.
Now, the Green Wave have issues moving the ball down the field, but they do a good job holding on to the ball and with 11 fumbles recovered and eight picks, the defense has made its share of big plays.
Across the gridiron, the Knights are the epitome of average with a turnover margin of zero.
Free ATS Pick
The Green Wave beat UCF—just like every other team—last year as the Knights went winless. In the game, Tulane scored 45-points and they allowed the Knights to score 31 despite losing 35-yards on the ground and quarterback Bo Schneider giving up three picks.
The Knights are now trying to forget the horrid season, Schneider is gone and the offense is better.
A return home is also a good thing for the Knights who’ve played the bulk of their season to this point on the road.
Look for Milton to have a strong game under center and Dontravious Wilson to lead an effective running attack against a Tulane team that’s surrendered 85-points over the last two games it’s played.
The Green Wave doesn’t turn the ball over, but it also doesn’t put the ball in the air, relying almost exclusively on the run. Central Florida has a strong run defense.
This will be Tulane’s fifth loss in conference play, but the Green Wave should cover the spread. They don’t give up the ball on offense and their ground game is good enough to at least keep this close and their defense is good enough to at least hang closer than a two score difference against a team that was winless last year.
College Football Odds: Central Florida 31, Tulane 24
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