Just a week after pushing Ohio State to the final minutes in a narrow 24-20 loss, the Northwestern Wildcats will have another chance against a top-10 team as they square off against the Wisconsin Badgers in Week 10. The Badgers themselves lost to Ohio State by more than the Wildcats, but to Wisconsin’s credit that game was at Ohio State and they did take the Buckeyes into overtime.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 10 game is set for Saturday, November 5, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Ryan Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin -6.5
Northwestern +6.5
Odds Analysis
The Badgers are favorites on the road and the spread is growing in their favor with the odds jumping from 5.5 to 6.5.
Wisconsin is 6-2 both straight up and against the spread. While Nebraska was able to cover in Week 9, the Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Last year, Northwestern covered in this matchup, beating Wisconsin in Wisconsin despite being 12-point underdogs. This time they’re at home, but still dogs by nearly a touchdown. The Wildcats enter play having beaten the spread in four straight including upsets against Iowa and Michigan State; as well as a big win over Indiana and a near upset against Ohio State.
Interestingly, Wisconsin is just 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games. Northwestern has also beaten the Badgers in back-to-back seasons despite being the underdog the last two years.
Matchup to Watch
Northwestern scored 20 against an Ohio State defense ranked a few spots behind Wisconsin. Can the Wildcats have similar success against the Badgers? Much of that depends on the shoulders of the air attack.
Clayton Thorson had a good game. He threw for 256 yards and although he did give up a pick, he also threw a touchdown pass. In Northwestern’s earlier struggles, Thorson was more prone to the turnover. He’s calmed down a bit as the season’s progressed and has 10 touchdowns over the last four games with just two interceptions. That’s a pretty solid ratio.
Watch to see if the Badgers can create more pressure than Ohio State did and force him into making a few mistakes. Thorson will need to be perfect to overcome the Badgers’ defense. The Badgers control the opposition well in the air and on the ground, though they rank No. 22 against the pass and No. 12 against the run.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats are a bit porous in the secondary. The Badgers’ offense is better on the ground, but given the Wildcats’ weakness watch to see the matchup between Alex Hornibrook and the secondary. Hornibrook is prone to interceptions. In fact, he’s only had more touchdowns than interceptions in one game this season.
If Hornibrook cannot come up big, the Wildcats have a chance to depress the Badgers’ offense production enough to at least cover the spread if not hand them their third loss.
Letdown Spot
After a string of five games against Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa and Nebraska, we could see a bit of a letdown from Wisconsin as the Badgers take on a seemingly easier opponent in Northwestern. Northwestern, after all, is unranked, but the Wildcats are getting it going. They’ve been playing good football of late against very good competition, too.
They started the season off rough, but we saw them almost upset Ohio State at home and they’ve taken on many of the same teams as Wisconsin in recent weeks with similar—or better—results.
Let’s also not forget that Northwestern won the last two matchups with Wisconsin. Perhaps the Badgers haven’t forgotten either and this is more of a revenge matchup.
Either way, the trends aren’t favorable for Wisconsin as the Wildcats are ramping up and the Badgers are seemingly starting to wear down.
Free ATS Pick
In college football, offense is often the main storyline, but defense is the strength of the Badgers. They rank third in the sport behind only Michigan and Florida in points per game allowed, giving up 14.6.
Offensively, these two teams are even with the Wildcats actually outscoring the Badgers—albeit minimally—over the course of the season.
Northwestern’s defense is pretty good, too, but look for the Badgers to stand on their defense, get a late defensive stop—similarly to Week 9 against Nebraska—and get the win, but when it comes to the spread, this will be a close game decided very late and with that, give me the points and the Wildcats.
In the matchup between Northwestern and Wisconsin over the last nine years, the home team is 8-1 ATS.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 23, Northwestern 20
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