The Baylor Bears desperately need a win after dropping each of their last two games. Despite the recent losses, Baylor still enters Week 11 action as a ranked team, but they’ll take on a tough opponent while on the road, facing an Oklahoma Sooners team that’s won six straight and beat the Bears when these two teams met last season when these two teams squared off at McLane Stadium.
This contest in Week 11 of the regular season will go down Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baylor +14.5
Oklahoma -14.5
Odds Analysis
The last two meetings between Baylor and Oklahoma ended with the road team winning the game. That would be a nice bounce back for a Bears team that’s hit a preverbal brick wall games against Texas and TCU. The Horned Frogs in particular was a tough loss. The Bears went into action as seven point favorites at home, but lost by 40, 62-22.
The last time these two teams met in Oklahoma, Baylor completely dismantled Oklahoma much the same way they lost to TCU, beating the Sooners 48-14. The defense didn’t do nearly as well last season at home as the Sooners scored 44-points in route to a 10-point win.
Now, with one team trending in a positive direction, winning six straight, and one coming off a demoralizing loss while hitting the road, the Sooners certainly have a nice chance for a sizeable victory.
Revenge Angle
After the Sooners beat the Bears, 44-34, last year at Baylor, the Bears have plenty of motivation for a bit of payback.
The Bears also need a win following back-to-back losses, including the embarrassing showing against Texas Christian.
In the 40-point loss, Baylor was flat on offense. The rushing game managed just three yards a carry and the time of possession, total yardage and turnover margin all skewed heavily in the Horned Frog’s favor.
Overall, for Baylor, it’s all about the offense. That offense was stalled against the Sooners last year, too, despite scoring 34-points.
For the offense to turn the corner, Seth Russell needs to bounce back to elite level. He’s been completely just around half of his passes over the last three weeks, but in the season’s first four games when the offense was clicking, he completed at least 55-percent in each game along with multiple touchdowns. In the first four games, he tossed 13 scores. He’s got six since.
Player to Watch
Samaje Perine last took the field on October 15, carrying the ball just three times against Kansas State before leaving with a leg injury. His availability for Saturday is still an uncertainty, but obviously he’d be a huge loss if he’s unable to go.
Last year, Perine rushed 28 times against the Bears, gaining 166 yards and scoring twice. Baker Mayfield then added 15 carries for 76 yards and another score as the Sooners took advantage of a weak Bears rush defense.
Baylor’s rush defense is once again below average, allowing 205.6 yards per game, ranking No. 101. Conversely, the passing defense has been pretty strong, ranking No. 17 in the nation in total passing yards allowed per game.
In last year’s game between these two teams, however, Sterling Shepard was a huge weapon for Baker Mayfield in the air. He’s obviously no longer an option, but Mayfield is having a very good season, completing 71.2 percent of his passes for 31 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Even if Perine is not an option, Mayfield can spread out the defense with his strong arm. That could allow Joe Mixon success. Mixon has been very good when given the chance and will be part of the game plan even if Perine is available.
Mixon is rushing for 6.8 yards per carry and had a 263-yard game three weeks ago against Texas Tech. He’s also scored three of his five touchdowns in his last two games.
Last week, against Iowa State, Dimitri Flowers got his first chances of the season, rushing 22 times for 115 yards.
Needless to say, Oklahoma will have success against Baylor on the ground and in the air behind Mayfield, but this offense takes a whole new dynamic with Perine carrying the ball.
Free ATS Pick
Baylor’s offense can put points on the board at any time, but the loss against TCU—and even the loss to the Longhorns—causes concern. The Bears are trending in the wrong direction while the Sooners have been playing very good football even without Perine. If the talented back is, well, back, then this game should go to the home team with relative ease, if he’s not back, still look for the home team to walk away victorious, but a win ATS is less of a certainty.
Overall, look for a high scoring affair with Russell exploiting a weak pass defense for the Sooners and the Oklahoma running game doing the same for the Bears’ rush defense. Look for the Sooners to do a better job controlling the ball and the clock and with that, take them to come away with the victory, but this game finished closer than the two touchdown spread would indicate.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma 45, Baylor 42
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
