The No. 24 Boise State Broncos continue to rule the Mountain West, but the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors haven’t been a bad team in conference and will have home field advantage when these teams meet up in Week 11. The Broncos will try and replicate a 55-0 win over the Rainbow Warriors from a year ago while Hawaii looks to be the second team this year to record an upset over Boise State after opening as underdogs by more than two scores.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Boise State -17
Hawaii +17
Odds Analysis
Hawaii has—or at least should have given the travel—one of the biggest home field advantages in college football which has led to the odds dropping a point from the original 18-point spread.
Still, the Rainbow Warriors are a meager 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. Similarly, although one of the more popular mid majors and a fun team to watch, Boise State hasn’t been good for bettors either. The Broncos are 2-7 ATS this year.
This spread could still be a bit high given Hawaii’s improvements over last season and a pretty solid defense, but the combo of Brett Rypien and Jeremy McNichols could still break through and create enough separation to cover the spread for just the third time all year.
Matchup to Watch
Rypien is completing 63.6 percent of his passes and has tallied 2,578 yards and 18 touchdowns against just six interceptions as the passing attack has led Boise State to No. 36 ranking in terms of scoring offense, next to a good, but not great rushing attack.
The Bronco’s quarterback is coming off a very efficient game where he completed 76.2 percent of his passes and notched three touchdowns against San Jose State. Just before that, however, the Wyoming Cowboys handed Boise State its first loss. Despite their No. 124 ranked pass defense, Rypien wasn’t able to record a touchdown, instead, he allowed one interception, making it the first time all year he failed to throw a touchdown and second time he gave up more interceptions than scores.
That game was in Wyoming and the Broncos hit the road for the first time since that loss, this time they face what is actually a pretty good Hawaii defense.
Rypien and McNichols were able to tear up the Rainbow Warrior defense last year and McNichols still might. Hawaii cannot seem to stop the run, but against the pass, the Rainbow Warriors rank No. 23 in college football.
Interestingly, however, while they look to avoid a repeat of the 55-0 loss to Boise State from last year, they’re coming off a 55-0 loss to San Diego State. Of course, that was on the road, but it was a stout rushing attack that average 9.4 yards a carry and a defense that recorded four interceptions that led to the win for Aztecs. The Hawaii pass defense still only allowed 97 passing yards in the loss.
Key Stat
The difference in this game comes on third down. The Rainbow Warriors rank No. 101 on third down chances, converting 35.9-percent of third down opportunities. Boise State ranks No. 10, converting 49.1-percent.
The Broncos should find success on third and short Saturday behind McNichols who will be running all over a weak defensive front for Hawaii. Defensively, only six teams have a worse third down conversion percentage allowed than the Rainbow Warriors for just that very reason.
Hawaii is allowing the opposition a new set of downs on 48.6-percent of third down chances. Boise State has allowed the opposition to convert 56 of 154 chances for 36.4-percent.
Free ATS Pick
Yes, the Aztecs did just manhandle the Rainbow Warriors and yes, the Broncos did the same to them last year. Despite what we saw last week, this is an improve Hawaii team. And opposite of last year’s showdown with the Broncos at last week’s against San Diego State, Saturday’s matchup is a home game for Hawaii.
Hawaii has a pretty good defense against the pass and that could slow down Rypien. I look for Boise State to ultimately lean more on McNichols in route to their victory. With Rypien partially contained, the Broncos shouldn’t run away with this game early. Instead, look for the Rainbow Warriors to remain within shouting distance, ultimately falling by a couple scores.
College Football Odds: Boise State 38, Hawaii 20
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