Terry Bowden’s Akron Zips are one win away from what would be their third ever bowl bid. The Zips have failed to get the requisite win in each of the last two weeks and now must defeat the 1-8 Bowling Green Falcons in Week 11 College Football to get to six wins. Otherwise the Zips will have to defeat the division-leading Ohio Bobcats in their last game of the season in order to get bowl eligible. Bowling Green may be 1-8, but has improved week-to-week and the task will be a tough one.
This contest in Week 11 will go down Wednesday, November 9, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Summa Field at InfoCision Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Bowling Green -18
Akron +18
Odds Analysis
If not for a one-point win against FCS North Dakota in the second week of the season, the Falcons would be winless. Bowling Green has been one of the worst teams at the FBS level with a 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS mark, but has gotten better since the start of MAC play.
The Zips are 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS and an offense that looked potent at the start of the year has puttered out. After five straight over games at the beginning of the year, Akron has now played five straight under games.
Key Stats
It’s hard to overstate just how bad the Falcons have been this season. Bowling Green has thrown more interceptions than anyone in the country, throwing 22 picks, contrasted with just 17 touchdowns, and those turnovers have spelled doom.
Those touchdowns have led to points for the opposing teams quite often this season. The Falcons also have one of the most porous defenses around, giving up 45.1 PPG. The fewest amount of points they’ve given up all season has been 26 and no team will win many games with numbers like that.
Another egregious statistic is the difference in third-down conversion rates between Bowling Green and its opponents. The Falcons have picked up 25.37 percent of their third-down conversion attempts and have allowed opponents to convert 47.29 percent of their third-down attempts this season.
Matchup to Watch
Thomas Woodson has been performing much better this season compared to last, but his overall numbers are a little deceiving. Woodson has thrown 18 touchdowns and a scant 6 interceptions on the year, but he posted most of those statistics in games against VMI, Marshall, and Ball State.
It’s no surprise that Akron won each of those games, but it’s been a different story in his other performances. Woodson still struggles with his accuracy and that was the main reason why the Zips lost as a 19.5-point favorite at Buffalo two weeks ago. There, he completed just 42.9 percent of his passes and that ineffectiveness was too much for the Zips to overcome.
He should have a much better time out against Bowling Green. The Falcons have allowed over 8 yards a pass attempt and 28 touchdowns this year. The secondary has major problems and they won’t be solved in the near future.
Free ATS Pick
It’s a bit surprising the Zips are such short favorites, but a lot of that has to do with Woodson. Woodson missed three games due to injury and has been rather poor the last two weeks in blowout losses to Buffalo and Toledo. If not for a 91-yard touchdown strike against the Rockets, his numbers would have been pedestrian there as well.
Bowling Green is going to surprise someone these last few weeks of the season. The Falcons offense has scored at least 20 in every MAC game and eventually the defense should get it together enough to win. However, that win won’t come at the expense of the Zips.
College Football Odds: Zips 34, Falcons 24
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