The Eastern Michigan Eagles are just one win away from their first bowl game appearance in almost three decades. That win has been increasingly harder to come by though. Eastern Michigan started the season 5-2, but back-to-back losses to Western Michigan and Miami (OH) have brought the Eagles to a 5-4 mark and uncertainty over whether they can get the last win they need. They will try to stamp their ticket to a bowl on Tuesday when they take on the Ball State Cardinals in College Football Week 11 action.
This contest in Week 11 will go down Tuesday, November 8, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Scheumann Stadium. This game will be broadcast on CBSSN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Eastern Michigan +1.5
Ball State -1.5
Odds Analysis
Eastern Michigan has been as solid as they come ATS-wise this season. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS and have three outright wins as an underdog, one of the top marks in the country. That has led this team to be one of the most profitable in the nation to bet on.
The Cardinals have been trending in the opposite direction. Ball State started the season 4-0 ATS, but has nosedived since then. In MAC play, Ball State is just 1-4 ATS and is coming off a 32-point loss at the hands of Western Michigan.
Matchup to Watch
It’s no secret what Ball State is going to try to do on offense. The Cardinals want to run the ball as much as possible with James Gilbert as the bell cow back. Gilbert has cracked the 100-yard mark in each of his last five games and averaged at least 5.2 yards per carry in each of those affairs.
Even though Ball State has lost four of those five, it’s not because of the running attack. The Cardinals have no passing game whatsoever and starting QB Riley Neal may not play in this game. Neal was injured and say out Ball State’s loss against Western Michigan last week and his status is questionable for Tuesday.
That running game will be going against a rush defense that is one of the best in the MAC. Eastern Michigan is giving up just 3.91 yards per carry and even held Western Michigan’s vaunted running attack in check.
Player to Watch
Brogan Roback may be 1-3 as the starter, but that does not indicate how much of a better option he is than Todd Porter. Porter threw 9 interceptions in just 142 pass attempts and while that didn’t kill the Eagles in non-conference play, it hurt them at the start of MAC play.
Roback has been solid since returning as the starter, throwing for 300 yards in each of the last three games and has thrown 10 touchdowns this season compared to just three interceptions. He had trouble moving the ball last week against Miami (OH), but kept the Eagles close against Western Michigan two weeks ago and showed off his talent there. Roback should have a big game against a Ball State pass defense that has had trouble slowing down good quarterbacks.
Free ATS Pick
Although Eastern Michigan has gotten a bit fortunate to get to five wins, especially considering how dominant Wyoming looks now, the Eagles are a respectable team. There’s nothing that this team does exceptionally well, but nothing it does poorly either.
Ball State is much less balanced. The Cardinals can only run the ball on offense and on defense their secondary has some major issues. They are also one of the worst red zone offenses in the country, scoring on just 76.19 percent of their possessions.
Catching points with Eastern Michigan is a gift here. The Eagles are the better team and although they are playing on the road, Ball State has no home field advantage at all. The Cardinals haven’t had more than 11,000 people in attendance for any game yet this season and won’t on Tuesday either.
College Football Odds: Eagles 31, Cardinals 21
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