The 18th-ranked Virginia Tech Hokies are laying nearly two touchdowns on Saturday, November 12th as they host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on ESPN U. The Yellow Jackets are hoping that quarterback Justin Thomas is available for this game while the Hokies will probably be without top cornerback Greg Stroman. The Yellow Jackets come into this Week 11 matchup at 5-4 overall but just 2-4 in the ACC while the Hokies are 7-2 overall and 5-1 in the conference.
This matchup in Week 11 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Lane Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia Tech +13.5
Virginia Tech -13.5
Odds Analysis
The Hokies opened up as 14.5 point favorites in this contest and the wiseguys immediately took the points with Georgia Tech as the number went down to 14 and then to 13.5. The number could actually go down further as the Hokies are not a big public team so bettors are not going to be flocking to bet Virginia Tech.
The big key to whether or not this line moves further is the status of Georgia Tech quarterback Justin Thomas. He left last week’s game due to injury but he did leave the game under his own power and early indications are that he should be fine for this game but his injury is definitely worth monitoring as the number would move toward the Hokies if Thomas is out.
Matchup to Watch
The Yellow Jackets are coming off their worst conference loss ever under head coach Paul Johnson as they were dominated 48-20 by North Carolina. The big problem for Georgia Tech is that they couldn’t stop the run. Oddsmakers don’t think the Yellow Jackets have much of a chance this week as Georgia Tech is nearly a two-touchdown underdog, the most points they have been getting since 2012 when they were a 15.5 point dog to Florida State. Last week the Tar Heels ran up and down the field on Georgia Tech as North Carolina had 283 rushing yards. Virginia Tech loves to run the ball as they rush the ball 61% of the time for nearly 200 yards per game. Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson said his defense is doing nothing right with the issues “are nobody beats blocks, nobody tackles, nobody covers anybody. That about covers it.”
Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Ted Roof has not done a good job with this defense. Safety Corey Griffin said that the team was prepared for North Carolina last week but that they still gave up 636 yards of offense, the second most the team has given up in school history. “Lining up, fitting (in gaps),” he said. “It all comes down to the small things, like those small things turn into big things. They gash us when we don’t do those small things correctly.”
Key Stat
The injuries are worth keeping an eye on in this game as the Yellow Jackets are not going to move the ball if they don’t have Thomas and if center Freddie Burden doesn’t play. On the other side, the Hokies will probably be without Stroman and they will be missing top safety Terrell Edmunds for the first half as he is suspended for the first half.
Virginia Tech won 23-21 at Georgia Tech last season. The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Virginia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Yellow Jackets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
Looking at the total, the Over is 5-0 in the Yellow Jackets last 5 games overall. The Over is 4-0 in the Yellow Jackets last 4 conference games. The Over is 4-0 in the Hokies last 4 home games. The Under is 35-17-1 in the Hokies last 53 conference games. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings at Virginia Tech.
Free ATS Pick
The Yellow Jackets may be a bit undervalued coming off a terrible performance against North Carolina but it is so hard to take them in a bad matchup. I don’t know that I trust the Virginia Tech defense to stop the Yellow Jackets consistently so the best play in this game is to take the game over the total.
College Football Odds: Hokies 42, Yellow Jackets 30
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