History favors the Wisconsin Badgers in their Week 11 showdown against the Illinois Fighting Illini as the Badgers have won each of their last six meetings and have covered the spread in three of the last four games against Illinois. Despite that, the spread may actually favor the Illini and if you go back even further, Illinois has covered the spread in five of their last nine against Wisconsin.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Illinois +26
Wisconsin -26
Over/Under 39.5
Odds Analysis
The odds makers don’t anticipate the Fighting Illini having much success against a tough Badger defense given the hefty spread, but modest total. The total has remained relatively stagnant since opening. The spread has moved, but only slightly dropping half a point from 26.5.
This season, Wisconsin has been a wonderful team for bettors. The Badgers have been as predictable as they come. Save the overtime loss to Ohio State, the defense has been nearly unbeatable. Thanks in large part to that stingy defense, there’ve been only two teams able to cover the spread against the Badgers all year: Georgia State and Nebraska.
The Fighting Illini will try and be the third team and they’ve got a nice 26-point edge to do it. Illinois also comes into action having covered the spread in three of their last four games even if they’re just 3-6 SU this season.
Player to Watch
The Illini are ranked No. 121 and No. 102 in total yards and points scored making them one of the worst offenses in college football. A matchup against Wisconsin’s third rank scoring defense is one of the biggest mismatches in NCAA football.
Give that, we can the Badgers defense to shut down the Illini in epic fashion. They may not even get within shouting distance of the end zone.
With that, in order for the Badgers to cover what’s a rather large spread, it’s up to the offense to score enough.
On the defensive end of the ball, the Illini are much better against the pass than they are against the run and the quarterback situation in Wisconsin isn’t anything to write home about.
That leaves the key player in this matchup as running back Corey Clement. Clement has 805 yards and seven touchdowns this season. He’s coming off his fourth 100 yard game, but has reached the end zone just twice in his last five games after notching five scores in his first three.
Illinois is a good matchup for him as they’re allowing 191.9 rushing yards a game though the defense did stand up in the win over Michigan State last weekend. If Clement can break through with a couple big runs, the Badgers could cover, but to do that, Wisconsin will need Clement to find the end zone and either Hornibrook or Houston to have a good game.
Key Stat
The Fighting Illini may be limited to just a handful of third down conversions all game as they’re ranked No. 121 in the nation in conversion rate at .304 while the Badgers are the sixth best third down defense with a .288 rate.
Without these two teams on the opposite end of the spectrum, look for a number of third and outs for the Illini which could put the Badgers in good field position, allowing Clement and company a better chance of tallying enough points to cover the spread.
Wisconsin will still need to deliver in the red zone and the Badgers have come away scoreless in eight of 33 trips inside the 20. That’s one of the worst percentages in college football.
Free ATS Pick
The Badgers defense will hold up their end of the bargain on Saturday against the Illini, particularly with them sending the backup quarterback into battle, but the Wisconsin offense may come up short in an effort to cover the spread.
While the defense has only allowed more than 17-points once, the offense has only scored more than 23 twice with both of those instances coming in September.
Illinois’ defense is below average, so we may see the third instance where they top 23, but don’t look for it to be quite enough to cover the spread.
Of course, in the end, have the advantage top to bottom and Clement could have a good game against the Fighting Illini. While Illinois covering the spread is still the way to go, the safer pick may be the under on the total given even a single touchdown by the Illini seems a bit unlikely.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 27, Illinois 6
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