The Kentucky Wildcats have turned some heads during the SEC schedule, winning enough games to stay in the thick of the conference race. However, oddsmakers believe it is being done with smoke and mirrors as they are heavy underdogs in a road game against Tennessee in Week 11 of the college football season.
Kentucky is in second place of the SEC East but is not likely to catch Florida be a player down the stretch. Even though Tennessee has lost the majority of its conference games, the Volunteers are the heavy favorites to take care of business in this one.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Neyland Stadium.
College Footbal Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kentucky +13.5
Tennessee -13.5
Over/Under 60.5
Odds Analysis
Kentucky is a big underdog and the gamblers believe in the recent hot streak as more than 65 percent of the money is on the Wildcats to cover. The scoring total is pretty high but the bettors believe it should be higher as the “over” is being tabbed by a great majority of the early gamblers.
The Volunteers are -505 on the moneyline while the Wildcats are +385 underdogs to win this matchup.
Tennessee is 6-3 straight up and 4-5 against the spread. The Volunteers have covered four times in seven attempts as the favorite and will aim to add another win to that total.
Kentucky is 5-4 straight up 5-4 against the spread. The Wildcats have covered three times in four attempts as underdogs.
Matchup to Watch
Kentucky ground game against the Tennessee rush defense - The Wildcats have been good at running the ball this year, to the tune of 215.8 yards per game. They are led by running back Stanley Williams, who has carried the ball 123 times for 898 yards and four touchdowns.
Kentucky will aim to establish the run, and is going against a group which struggles to stop it. Tennessee has given up 215.8 yards per game on the ground and has to do a better job against it in order to pull away in this one.
The Volunteers are heavy favorites, but will struggle to blow out Kentucky if they allow the Wildcats to get going with the running game.
Key Stat
30. That’s how many times Tennessee has defeated Kentucky in the 31 meetings between the schools since 1985. The Wildcats’ only win came in 2011 and the Vols have won four in a row coming into this matchup.
Tennessee defeated Kentucky 52-21 last season and comes in as the favorite again this year. The Volunteers led this matchup all-time 78-24-9. The oddsmakers see more of the same despite Kentucky’s recent success. While Tennessee isn’t as good as its former top-10 ranking would suggest, there are plenty of reasons to see why it is the favorite in this one.
Free ATS Pick
The SEC East has been unbelievably unpredictable in 2016, and an upset win by Kentucky would be icing on the cake. It would keep the Wildcats within striking distance of Florida, but it seems very unlikely to happen.
Kentucky is on a nice run but has a negative point-differential and less talent than Tennessee. The Volunteers went through a tough stretch where they lost three straight games to tumble down the polls but will now aim for a prestigious bowl game.
Take the Vols to win this game but the spread is getting too high. Kentucky should be able to stick around and cover although it will be Tennessee which comes away with the victory. The “over” is the correct call as the defenses are both liable to give up big plays and will result in an entertaining affair.
College Football Odds: Tennessee 37, Kentucky 27
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