The LSU Tigers put up a valiant fight but couldn’t take out Goliath in a 10-0 loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide last time out. They will aim to rebound in a Week 11 matchup with the Arkansas Razorbacks in another SEC matchup.
Even though it’s sporting just a 5-3 overall record and is on the road, LSU is playing well enough at this point to be more than touchdown favorites. The Tigers will aim to knock off a Razorbacks squad which has been really hard to peg over the past month. Arkansas enters off an upset of Florida and will look to knock off another ranked foe.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Sunday, November 12, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
LSU -7.5
Arkansas +7.5
Over/Under 45.5
Odds Analysis
The half-point extra makes Arkansas an enticing option, but thus far 57 percent of the money is going toward LSU to cover. The scoring total is low because of LSU’s elite defense and troublesome offense, but bettors deem it too low since the overwhelming majority of early money is hammering the “over” in this one.
LSU is 3-5 against the spread this season and has yet to cover in two road contests.
Arkansas is 6-3 straight up and 4-5 against the spread. The Razorbacks have covered three times in six tries as the underdog and have also covered half the time in six home games.
Player to Watch
Leonard Fournette -- After a record-setting performance against Ole Miss three weeks ago, the LSU running back hit a brick wall last week — a brick walled named Alabama. The junior will look to rebound this week against Arkansas.
Fournette had 16 carries for 284 yards and three touchdowns in that 38-21 win over Ole Miss on October 22, averaging 17.8 yards a carry. Last week was a very different story. Against one of the best defenses in the country in Alabama last week, he managed a mere 35 yards on 17 carries.
Fournette has the pedigree to get back on track, and seems to be mostly over the ankle issue that nagged him for much of the early part of the season. While Fournette isn’t likely 100 percent, even a slightly slowed player of his caliber is able to put up big numbers.
Arkansas has allowed 198.4 rushing yards per game this season and that could be a big problem if Fournette gets untracked.
Matchup to Watch
Austin Allen against the LSU secondary -- SInce Fournette is likely to have a big day, the Razorbacks are going to need to make some plays on offense to keep up.
Allen, the quarterback, has completed 170-of-275 passes this season for 2,291 yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He threw for 243 yards and a touchdown in last week’s upset of Florida but is facing a stingy LSU defense which has allowed only 14.4 points per game and fewer than 200 passing yards per game this season.
Arkansas was held to only three points two weeks ago by Auburn but has otherwise scored against everyone else on its schedule. It remains to be seen how the group does against the tough Tigers’ defense.
Free ATS Pick
LSU has more talent, but was shut out last week because once again the passing game could get nothing going. Arkansas doesn’t have near the type of defense that Alabama possesses, but this has been an ongoing problem for the Tigers.
When a team is a road favorite, it’s tough to have a glaring issue like that around. While LSU could pull this one off, expect it to be closer than the spread. Take the Tigers by a field goal but Arkansas to cover. The “under” is also the correct call as this one will be hard-fought and low-scoring.
College Football Odds: LSU 23, Arkansas 20
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