The ACC schedule has been a tough one for both the Miami Hurricanes and the Virginia Cavaliers. In Week 11, these two teams square off with the Hurricanes hoping for their second straight victory while the Cavaliers aim to snap a losing skid with a win at home. If successful, it’ll be the fifth straight year the home team won the showdown between these two programs.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Saturday, November 12, 2016, at 2 p.m. ET at David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami -10
Virginia +10
Odds Analysis
The home team has won the matchup between Miami and Virginia in four straight years and six of the last seven meetings. Meanwhile, the last time the Hurricanes got the win in Virginia was 2008. Further, the Cavs has covered the spread in three straight meetings and in five of the last six.
Given those trends, Virginia would be a pretty good bet to cover the spread at home, but at just 2-7 this year, the Cavs have not been a good team. Even so, they’ve managed a 4-4-1 mark ATS, much in line with Miami’s 5-4 ATS record.
More recently, each team has covered the spread in just one of their last four games, but for Miami that was this past weekend against Pittsburgh when the managed to snap a four game losing streak SU and ATS with an impressive 51-28 victory.
Virginia, meanwhile, lost to Wake Forest in its eighth straight game as the underdog. Due to their futility, they open as 10-point dogs at home.
Matchup to Watch
The Virginia secondary has been a bit of a mess. During the four game losing streak, the Cavaliers have just a single interception. Over the season, Virginia ranks near the bottom in college football allowing 271 passing yards per game.
Even the dismal Demon Deacon passing game managed to go 9-for-10 in the air.
On the flip side, the Hurricanes’ have a pretty good statistical offense, scoring 34.9 yards per game and ranking in the top quarter of the sport in passing yards with 263.6 yards per game while they’re well below average carrying the ball.
With the strength of Miami meeting up with the weakest point of the Virginia defense, things bode well for the road team.
Making things worse, Brad Kaaya is coming off a particularly good outing, completing 68.1 percent of his passes against Pittsburgh, tossing 356 yards and four touchdowns in the win. Similar to Virginia, the Panthers’ defense is reasonably good upfront and able to control the running game, but has been easy to tear apart in the secondary. Look for a similar game play for Miami against the Cavs and similar success.
Key Stat
The Cavaliers have to stop Kaaya and control the Miami offense if they’re going to get back in the win column. We’ve already seen how back the secondary is, so the key will be to find success in the pass rush and put Kaaya on his back.
The Panthers only managed one sack and four tackles for a loss last week. That’s a great sign for Miami who has 21 sacks allowed. Even worse, 13 of those sacks came in a two game span, but the offensive line came around last Saturday.
What is one of the team’s biggest weaknesses may not play up on Saturday if the Miami offensive line repeats, but Virginia has been able to notch the sacks this season. They’re ranked No. 38 in total sacks with 23, that’s 2.56 per game.
Free ATS Pick
Miami has snapped its losing skid and is still in position to nab a bowl game, but will have to break a trend, beating Virginia on the road, to start a winning streak.
While Miami has had its struggles, we saw the team break out in a huge way against a Pittsburgh team with similar struggles against the pass. Even before that the Hurricanes showed signs of life against Notre Dame before a late run by the Irish.
Look for the Hurricanes to avoid too many sacks, protecting Kaaya enough to allow him to move the ball down the field and open up the running game enough to keep moving the chains.
Of course, on the other side of the gridiron, the Miami defense poses problems for the Cavs that cannot run the ball consistently and leans too heavily on Kurt Benkert who has allowed four interceptions in the last two games.
Take the Hurricanes to get their second straight win and to cover the spread against a poor Virginia team.
College Football Odds: Miami 35, Virginia 23
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